Football · Japan J-League · 01/11, 08:00

Prediction: Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka

Team pages: Machida Zelvia · Gamba Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Machida Zelvia1.82

Gamba Osaka1.06

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Machida Zelvia Draw Gamba Osaka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Machida Zelvia 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWWWD

Gamba Osaka 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLDWD

Head-to-head

Machida Zelvia 3–1–0 Gamba Osaka (4 last)

Machida Zelvia3-1Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka0-1Machida Zelvia
Gamba Osaka1-3Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia1-1Gamba Osaka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Machida Zelvia 1594 · Gamba Osaka 1505

	Machida Zelvia	Draw	Gamba Osaka
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Machida Zelvia (rating 1594 vs 1505).
H2H favours Machida Zelvia: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Machida Zelvia	Gamba Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.7	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.75 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.80
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.54

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +21’	1.73	3.75	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:46 +212’	1.75	3.82	4.54
09:17 +1’	1.75	3.80▼	4.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Machida Zelvia 3–1–0 Gamba Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/25 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	3-1 HT 1-0	Gamba Osaka
02/04/25 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	0-1 HT 0-1	Machida Zelvia
30/06/24 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	1-3 HT 1-1	Machida Zelvia
24/02/24 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	1-1 HT 1-0	Gamba Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	30	10	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	27	8	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	29	10	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	25	19	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	18	11	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	25	18	22
7	Urawa Red Diamonds	12	7	0	5	21	23	21
8	Kashima Antlers	12	6	2	4	25	21	20
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	12	4	6	2	16	12	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	15	17	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	14	18	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	12	19	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	12	4	2	6	10	20	14
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	15	19	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	14	21	11
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	12	22	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	9	21	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	13	21	7
20	JEF Utd Chiba	12	1	4	7	12	24	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Machida Zelvia	Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe	0-0 D	0-1 L
Shimizu S-Pulse	5-0 W	2-2 D
Avispa Fukuoka	3-0 W	2-1 W
Kyoto Sanga FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Nagoya Grampus	3-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Machida Zelvia (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Machida Zelvia

WDWWDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
21/10	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	5-0	5	3	W
18/10	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	1	2	W
10/10	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
20/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-4	1	4	L
12/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/09	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
29/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
23/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W

Gamba Osaka

LDDLLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
21/10	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
17/10	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
09/10	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
20/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
06/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
02/09	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
22/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Machida Zelvia win (54%). Probabilities: Machida Zelvia 54%, draw 25%, Gamba Osaka 21%.

How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Machida Zelvia 1.82 · Gamba Osaka 1.06), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.