Football · Japan J-League · 01/11, 06:00

Prediction: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy

Team pages: V-Varen Nagasaki · Tokyo Verdy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

V-Varen Nagasaki1.2

Tokyo Verdy1.06

1X2

38% 30% 31%

V-Varen Nagasaki Draw Tokyo Verdy

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

V-Varen Nagasaki 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLWDDLWL

Tokyo Verdy 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLLLDW

Head-to-head

V-Varen Nagasaki 2–2–2 Tokyo Verdy (6 last)

Tokyo Verdy1-2V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki1-2Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy1-0V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki1-1Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy0-3V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki1-1Tokyo Verdy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · V-Varen Nagasaki 1482 · Tokyo Verdy 1465

	V-Varen Nagasaki	Draw	Tokyo Verdy
Our model	38%	31%	31%
Market	39%	30%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	V-Varen Nagasaki	Tokyo Verdy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.8	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.46
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.18
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.05 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +5’	2.38	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +303’	2.24	3.29	3.35
12:06 +9’	2.52▲	3.21▼	2.93▼
16:09 +13’	2.45▼	3.21	3.03▲
14:19 +4’	2.46▲	3.18▼	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · V-Varen Nagasaki 2–2–2 Tokyo Verdy

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/23 Japan J2-League	Tokyo Verdy	1-2 HT 0-1	V-Varen Nagasaki
07/05/23 Japan J2-League	V-Varen Nagasaki	1-2 HT 0-0	Tokyo Verdy
06/08/22 Japan J2-League	Tokyo Verdy	1-0 HT 0-0	V-Varen Nagasaki
19/02/22 Japan J2-League	V-Varen Nagasaki	1-1 HT 1-1	Tokyo Verdy
07/11/21 Japan J2-League	Tokyo Verdy	0-3 HT 0-0	V-Varen Nagasaki
25/04/21 Japan J2-League	V-Varen Nagasaki	1-1 HT 1-0	Tokyo Verdy

Standings · Japan J-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	30	10	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	27	8	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	29	10	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	25	19	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	18	11	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	25	18	22
7	Urawa Red Diamonds	12	7	0	5	21	23	21
8	Kashima Antlers	12	6	2	4	25	21	20
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	12	4	6	2	16	12	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	15	17	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	14	18	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	12	19	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	12	4	2	6	10	20	14
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	15	19	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	14	21	11
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	12	22	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	9	21	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	13	21	7
20	JEF Utd Chiba	12	1	4	7	12	24	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	V-Varen Nagasaki	Tokyo Verdy
Urawa Red Diamonds	0-1 L	1-3 L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4-0 W	0-2 L
Kashima Antlers	0-2 L	0-2 L
JEF Utd Chiba	1-1 D	1-1 D
Cerezo Osaka	1-1 D	0-0 D
Vissel Kobe	1-3 L	0-2 L
FC Tokyo	0-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: V-Varen Nagasaki (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

V-Varen Nagasaki

LLDLWDDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
21/10	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	2-0	4-0	0	3	W
17/10	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
11/10	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
12/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
06/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-2	1-3	1	2	L
02/09	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
21/08	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-1	2-4	2	1	L

Tokyo Verdy

DLLDDLLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
21/10	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
17/10	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-4	1	3	L
11/10	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
19/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
13/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
06/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
02/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
29/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
22/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a V-Varen Nagasaki win (38%). Probabilities: V-Varen Nagasaki 38%, draw 30%, Tokyo Verdy 31%.

How many goals are expected in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy?

The model expects 2.26 goals (V-Varen Nagasaki 1.2 · Tokyo Verdy 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.