Football · Japan J-League · 01/11, 06:00

Prediction: JEF Utd Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka

Team pages: JEF Utd Chiba · Avispa Fukuoka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

JEF Utd Chiba1.25

Avispa Fukuoka1.47

1X2

31% 28% 41%

JEF Utd Chiba Draw Avispa Fukuoka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

JEF Utd Chiba 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLDDLD

Avispa Fukuoka 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWLLL

Head-to-head

JEF Utd Chiba 2–2–2 Avispa Fukuoka (6 last)

JEF Utd Chiba1-2Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka2-2JEF Utd Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka1-0JEF Utd Chiba
JEF Utd Chiba2-2Avispa Fukuoka
JEF Utd Chiba3-0Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka0-1JEF Utd Chiba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JEF Utd Chiba 1447 · Avispa Fukuoka 1418

	JEF Utd Chiba	Draw	Avispa Fukuoka
Our model	31%	28%	41%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JEF Utd Chiba	Avispa Fukuoka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.25

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.32 ★
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +12’	3.10	3.25	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +303’	2.93	3.31	2.46
16:18 +4’	3.15▲	3.35▲	2.31▼
07:10 +9’	3.15	3.32▼	2.32▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JEF Utd Chiba 2–2–2 Avispa Fukuoka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs	JEF Utd Chiba	1-2 HT 1-0	Avispa Fukuoka
30/05/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs	Avispa Fukuoka	2-2 HT 0-1	JEF Utd Chiba
25/10/20 Japan J2-League	Avispa Fukuoka	1-0 HT 1-0	JEF Utd Chiba
02/09/20 Japan J2-League	JEF Utd Chiba	2-2 HT 1-1	Avispa Fukuoka
20/07/19 Japan J2-League	JEF Utd Chiba	3-0 HT 1-0	Avispa Fukuoka
30/03/19 Japan J2-League	Avispa Fukuoka	0-1 HT 0-0	JEF Utd Chiba

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	30	10	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	27	8	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	29	10	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	25	19	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	18	11	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	25	18	22
7	Urawa Red Diamonds	12	7	0	5	21	23	21
8	Kashima Antlers	12	6	2	4	25	21	20
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	12	4	6	2	16	12	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	15	17	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	14	18	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	12	19	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	12	4	2	6	10	20	14
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	15	19	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	14	21	11
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	12	22	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	9	21	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	13	21	7
20	JEF Utd Chiba	12	1	4	7	12	24	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JEF Utd Chiba	Avispa Fukuoka
Urawa Red Diamonds	2-3 L	2-3 L
Shimizu S-Pulse	1-2 L	0-1 L
Tokyo Verdy	1-1 D	1-3 L
Gamba Osaka	2-0 W	1-2 L
Fagiano Okayama	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JEF Utd Chiba (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JEF Utd Chiba

LLLWDLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
21/10	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
17/10	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
11/10	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
19/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
13/09	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
06/09	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
02/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	2-4	2-4	4	6	L
21/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	1	1	L

Avispa Fukuoka

LLLDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
21/10	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/10	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
10/10	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
19/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JEF Utd Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avispa Fukuoka win (41%). Probabilities: JEF Utd Chiba 31%, draw 28%, Avispa Fukuoka 41%.

How many goals are expected in JEF Utd Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka?

The model expects 2.72 goals (JEF Utd Chiba 1.25 · Avispa Fukuoka 1.47), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JEF Utd Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.