Football · Japan J-League · 02/09, 12:00

Prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo

Team pages: Shimizu S-Pulse · FC Tokyo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Shimizu S-Pulse0.94

FC Tokyo1.43

1X2

24% 29% 47%

Shimizu S-Pulse Draw FC Tokyo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLWLLL

FC Tokyo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLDWW

Head-to-head

Shimizu S-Pulse 3–1–2 FC Tokyo (6 last)

Shimizu S-Pulse1-1FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo0-2Shimizu S-Pulse
FC Tokyo0-2Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse0-3FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo4-0Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse3-0FC Tokyo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shimizu S-Pulse 1471 · FC Tokyo 1517

	Shimizu S-Pulse	Draw	FC Tokyo
Our model	23%	29%	47%
Market	24%	29%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tokyo (rating 1471 vs 1517).
H2H favours Shimizu S-Pulse: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shimizu S-Pulse	FC Tokyo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	1.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	1.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.20

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.47 ★
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:20 +4’	3.90	3.20	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +32’	3.65	3.46	2.05
14:20 +6’	3.71▲	3.47▲	2.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shimizu S-Pulse 3–1–2 FC Tokyo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 Japan J-League	Shimizu S-Pulse	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Tokyo
29/04/25 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	0-2 HT 0-1	Shimizu S-Pulse
07/08/22 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	0-2 HT 0-0	Shimizu S-Pulse
25/05/22 Japan J-League	Shimizu S-Pulse	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Tokyo
03/11/21 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	4-0 HT 3-0	Shimizu S-Pulse
26/05/21 Japan J-League	Shimizu S-Pulse	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Tokyo

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10	4	12
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11	6	12
3	Machida Zelvia	4	3	1	0	13	3	10
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2	2	0	8	2	8
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
6	Vissel Kobe	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
7	Kawasaki Frontale	4	1	3	0	8	6	6
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
11	Mito Hollyhock	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6	7	5
13	Fagiano Okayama	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1	3	3
17	Urawa Red Diamonds	4	1	0	3	8	13	3
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shimizu S-Pulse	FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol	0-1 L	3-1 W
V-Varen Nagasaki	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tokyo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shimizu S-Pulse

LWDDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
22/08	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
15/08	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
08/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
24/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
17/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
10/05	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/05	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
02/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-1	2-1	10	7	W
29/04	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L

FC Tokyo

WWLWDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
21/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
15/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
08/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-2	1-5	2	3	L
23/05	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
16/05	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
10/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
06/05	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
02/05	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/04	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	3-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Tokyo win (47%). Probabilities: Shimizu S-Pulse 24%, draw 29%, FC Tokyo 47%.

How many goals are expected in Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Shimizu S-Pulse 0.94 · FC Tokyo 1.43), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.