Football · Japan J3-League · 19/09, 12:00

Prediction: Thespa Gunma vs Kochi United

Team pages: Thespa Gunma · Kochi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Thespa Gunma1.49

Kochi United1.33

1X2

40% 28% 33%

Thespa Gunma Draw Kochi United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Thespa Gunma 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Kochi United 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Thespa Gunma 1–1–0 Kochi United (2 last)

Kochi United0-1Thespa Gunma
Thespa Gunma2-2Kochi United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thespa Gunma 1462 · Kochi United 1401

	Thespa Gunma	Draw	Kochi United
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	40%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thespa Gunma (rating 1462 vs 1401).
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thespa Gunma	Kochi United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	0.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	1.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +14’	2.25	3.25	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Thespa Gunma 1–1–0 Kochi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Japan J3-League	Kochi United	0-1 HT 0-1	Thespa Gunma
17/05/25 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	2-2 HT 1-1	Kochi United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	6	5	1	0	12	6	16
2	Ehime FC	6	4	1	1	16	7	13
3	Sagamihara	6	3	2	1	11	6	11
4	FC Gifu	6	3	1	2	15	4	10
5	FC Osaka	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
5	FC Ryukyu	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
7	Renofa Yamaguchi	6	3	1	2	7	4	10
8	Gainare Tottori	6	3	1	2	8	11	10
9	Roasso Kumamoto	6	2	3	1	6	4	9
10	Reilac Shiga	6	3	0	3	10	10	9
11	Tochigi SC	6	2	3	1	9	9	9
12	Parceiro Nagano	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
13	Nara Club	6	2	2	2	11	13	8
14	Zweigen Kanazawa	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
15	Kochi United	6	1	2	3	3	13	5
16	Fukushima Utd	6	1	1	4	11	13	4
17	Matsumoto Y FC	6	0	4	2	6	9	4
18	Kamatamare Sanuki	6	1	1	4	6	11	4
19	Giravanz Kitakyushu	6	0	3	3	7	14	3
20	Thespa Gunma	6	1	0	5	6	14	3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thespa Gunma

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
05/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
30/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-3	2-3	5	3	L
15/08	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
08/08	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
29/11	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	2-2	6-2	1	2	W
16/11	Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
09/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W

Kochi United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	9	1	L
30/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
23/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
15/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-3	0-7	4	4	L
08/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
29/11	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
24/11	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
15/11	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
09/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thespa Gunma vs Kochi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Thespa Gunma win (40%). Probabilities: Thespa Gunma 40%, draw 28%, Kochi United 33%.

How many goals are expected in Thespa Gunma vs Kochi United?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Thespa Gunma 1.49 · Kochi United 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Thespa Gunma vs Kochi United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.