Football · Japan J3-League · 26/09, 10:00

Prediction: Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United

Team pages: Giravanz Kitakyushu · Kagoshima United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Giravanz Kitakyushu1.23

Kagoshima United1.81

1X2

25% 25% 50%

Giravanz Kitakyushu Draw Kagoshima United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Giravanz Kitakyushu 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDLLLW

Kagoshima United 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Giravanz Kitakyushu 0–4–2 Kagoshima United (6 last)

Giravanz Kitakyushu1-5Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United1-1Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu1-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United1-0Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu1-1Kagoshima United
Giravanz Kitakyushu1-1Kagoshima United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Giravanz Kitakyushu 1445 · Kagoshima United 1593

	Giravanz Kitakyushu	Draw	Kagoshima United
Our model	25%	25%	50%
Market	25%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1445 vs 1593).
H2H favours Kagoshima United: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Giravanz Kitakyushu	Kagoshima United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +24’	3.60	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Giravanz Kitakyushu 0–4–2 Kagoshima United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-5 HT 1-2	Kagoshima United
05/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Kagoshima United	1-1 HT 1-0	Giravanz Kitakyushu
11/10/25 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-1 HT 0-1	Kagoshima United
23/03/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	1-0 HT 0-0	Giravanz Kitakyushu
26/08/23 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-1 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
21/05/23 Japan Cup	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-1 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	7	6	1	0	15	7	19
2	Ehime FC	7	5	1	1	18	8	16
3	FC Osaka	7	3	4	0	13	7	13
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	7	4	1	2	9	5	13
5	Reilac Shiga	7	4	0	3	13	10	12
6	Sagamihara	7	3	2	2	12	8	11
7	Parceiro Nagano	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
8	Nara Club	7	3	2	2	14	15	11
9	FC Gifu	7	3	1	3	15	5	10
10	Roasso Kumamoto	7	2	4	1	6	4	10
11	FC Ryukyu	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
12	Gainare Tottori	7	3	1	3	10	14	10
13	Tochigi SC	7	2	3	2	10	12	9
14	Zweigen Kanazawa	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
15	Giravanz Kitakyushu	7	1	3	3	9	15	6
16	Thespa Gunma	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
17	Matsumoto Y FC	7	0	5	2	6	9	5
18	Kochi United	7	1	2	4	3	14	5
19	Fukushima Utd	7	1	1	5	12	17	4
20	Kamatamare Sanuki	7	1	1	5	7	13	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Giravanz Kitakyushu	Kagoshima United
FC Ryukyu	0-3 L	2-1 W
Tochigi SC	2-2 D	3-1 W
Zweigen Kanazawa	2-1 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kagoshima United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Giravanz Kitakyushu

LLWLDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
12/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	11	1	L
09/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
05/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
30/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
29/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
23/11	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-1	2-1	9	1	W
16/11	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-3	2-3	2	4	L
09/11	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	4	3	L

Kagoshima United

DLLWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
05/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
29/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-1	4-3	3	1	W
22/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
16/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
07/12	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
29/11	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-3	2-4	6	4	L
23/11	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	13	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kagoshima United win (50%). Probabilities: Giravanz Kitakyushu 25%, draw 25%, Kagoshima United 50%.

How many goals are expected in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Giravanz Kitakyushu 1.23 · Kagoshima United 1.81), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Kagoshima United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.