Football · Japan J3-League · 26/09, 10:00
Prediction: Fukushima Utd vs Parceiro Nagano
Team pages: Fukushima Utd · Parceiro Nagano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.44Total
Fukushima Utd1.86
Parceiro Nagano1.58
1X2
Fukushima Utd
Draw
Parceiro Nagano
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Fukushima Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Parceiro Nagano
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fukushima Utd
2–1–3
Parceiro Nagano
(6 last)
- Parceiro Nagano1-3Fukushima Utd
- Fukushima Utd4-2Parceiro Nagano
- Fukushima Utd1-4Parceiro Nagano
- Parceiro Nagano2-0Fukushima Utd
- Fukushima Utd0-0Parceiro Nagano
- Parceiro Nagano2-1Fukushima Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fukushima Utd 1510 · Parceiro Nagano 1456
| Fukushima Utd | Draw | Parceiro Nagano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fukushima Utd (rating 1510 vs 1456).
- H2H favours Parceiro Nagano: 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fukushima Utd | Parceiro Nagano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5 | 1.8 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 1.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fukushima Utd 2–1–3 Parceiro Nagano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Parceiro Nagano | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Fukushima Utd |
| 08/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Fukushima Utd | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 28/09/25 Japan J3-League | Fukushima Utd | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 23/03/25 Japan J3-League | Parceiro Nagano | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Fukushima Utd |
| 29/09/24 Japan J3-League | Fukushima Utd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 20/03/24 Japan J3-League | Parceiro Nagano | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Fukushima Utd |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Osaka | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Reilac Shiga | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 7 | Parceiro Nagano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Nara Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 11 |
| 9 | FC Gifu | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Roasso Kumamoto | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Ryukyu | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
| 13 | Tochigi SC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| 14 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 15 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 16 | Thespa Gunma | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 6 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Y FC | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| 18 | Kochi United | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 5 |
| 19 | Fukushima Utd | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 4 |
| 20 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fukushima Utd | Parceiro Nagano |
|---|---|---|
| FC Osaka | 1-4 L | 2-4 L |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Thespa Gunma | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fukushima Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 29/11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/11 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Parceiro Nagano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 05/09 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 29/11 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 23/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fukushima Utd vs Parceiro Nagano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fukushima Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Fukushima Utd 43%, draw 25%, Parceiro Nagano 32%.
How many goals are expected in Fukushima Utd vs Parceiro Nagano?
The model expects 3.44 goals (Fukushima Utd 1.86 · Parceiro Nagano 1.58), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Fukushima Utd vs Parceiro Nagano?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.