Football · Japan J3-League · 19/09, 12:00
Prediction: Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC
Team pages: Kagoshima United · Tochigi SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Kagoshima United1.31
Tochigi SC1.21
1X2
Kagoshima United
Draw
Tochigi SC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Kagoshima United
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Tochigi SC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kagoshima United
3–3
Tochigi SC
(6 last)
- Tochigi SC2-0Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United1-0Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC2-1Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United2-1Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC3-1Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United2-0Tochigi SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1561 · Tochigi SC 1506
| Kagoshima United | Draw | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1561 vs 1506).
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kagoshima United | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.5 | 1.9 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 1.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 3–0–3 Tochigi SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 Japan J3-League | Tochigi SC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Kagoshima United |
| 05/07/25 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tochigi SC |
| 22/09/24 Japan J2-League | Tochigi SC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Kagoshima United |
| 21/04/24 Japan J2-League | Kagoshima United | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tochigi SC |
| 22/09/19 Japan J2-League | Tochigi SC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Kagoshima United |
| 22/06/19 Japan J2-League | Kagoshima United | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Tochigi SC |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | FC Gifu | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Osaka | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Ryukyu | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Gainare Tottori | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Reilac Shiga | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 11 | Tochigi SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 12 | Parceiro Nagano | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Nara Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
| 15 | Kochi United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 5 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 4 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Y FC | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 19 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 3 |
| 20 | Thespa Gunma | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 3 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kagoshima United | Tochigi SC |
|---|---|---|
| FC Gifu | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Zweigen Kanazawa | 2-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kagoshima United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/12 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/11 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 16/11 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 2 | D |
Tochigi SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 05/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/11 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 23/11 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/11 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (38%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 38%, draw 29%, Tochigi SC 33%.
How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Kagoshima United 1.31 · Tochigi SC 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.