Football · Japan J3-League · 17/10, 07:00
Prediction: Gainare Tottori vs Thespa Gunma
Team pages: Gainare Tottori · Thespa Gunma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Gainare Tottori1.59
Thespa Gunma1.41
1X2
Gainare Tottori
Draw
Thespa Gunma
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Gainare Tottori
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Thespa Gunma
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gainare Tottori
2–1–3
Thespa Gunma
(6 last)
- Gainare Tottori3-1Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma2-0Gainare Tottori
- Gainare Tottori1-0Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma5-0Gainare Tottori
- Thespa Gunma3-3Gainare Tottori
- Gainare Tottori1-2Thespa Gunma
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gainare Tottori 1495 · Thespa Gunma 1422
| Gainare Tottori | Draw | Thespa Gunma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainare Tottori (rating 1495 vs 1422).
- H2H favours Thespa Gunma: 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gainare Tottori | Thespa Gunma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.9 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainare Tottori 2–1–3 Thespa Gunma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Thespa Gunma |
| 16/03/25 Japan J3-League | Thespa Gunma | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Gainare Tottori |
| 20/10/19 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Thespa Gunma |
| 09/06/19 Japan J3-League | Thespa Gunma | 5-0 | Gainare Tottori |
| 11/11/18 Japan J3-League | Thespa Gunma | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Gainare Tottori |
| 28/07/18 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 1-2 | Thespa Gunma |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 10 | 16 |
| 8 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 |
| 10 | Reilac Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Y FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | FC Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespa Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Fukushima Utd | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 25 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gainare Tottori | Thespa Gunma |
|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Reilac Shiga | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Fukushima Utd | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Ehime FC | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gainare Tottori
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
Thespa Gunma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/10 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gainare Tottori vs Thespa Gunma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gainare Tottori win (41%). Probabilities: Gainare Tottori 41%, draw 26%, Thespa Gunma 33%.
How many goals are expected in Gainare Tottori vs Thespa Gunma?
The model expects 3 goals (Gainare Tottori 1.59 · Thespa Gunma 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gainare Tottori vs Thespa Gunma?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.