Football · Japan J3-League · 17/10, 07:00

Prediction: Giravanz Kitakyushu vs FC Osaka

Team pages: Giravanz Kitakyushu · FC Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Giravanz Kitakyushu1.22

FC Osaka1.63

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Giravanz Kitakyushu Draw FC Osaka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Giravanz Kitakyushu 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLWDWL

FC Osaka 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDDWWWLD

Head-to-head

Giravanz Kitakyushu 2–3–1 FC Osaka (6 last)

FC Osaka0-3Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu1-0FC Osaka
FC Osaka3-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu0-0FC Osaka
FC Osaka0-0Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu0-0FC Osaka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Giravanz Kitakyushu 1459 · FC Osaka 1557

	Giravanz Kitakyushu	Draw	FC Osaka
Our model	28%	27%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Osaka (rating 1459 vs 1557).
H2H favours Giravanz Kitakyushu: 2-3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Giravanz Kitakyushu	FC Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.29 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.52
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.98

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:32 +13’	3.20	3.50	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +152’	3.29	3.52	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Giravanz Kitakyushu 2–3–1 FC Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/25 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	0-3 HT 0-2	Giravanz Kitakyushu
05/04/25 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Osaka
19/10/24 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	3-2 HT 1-0	Giravanz Kitakyushu
20/03/24 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Osaka
24/09/23 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	0-0 HT 0-0	Giravanz Kitakyushu
16/07/23 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Osaka

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ehime FC	10	7	2	1	24	10	23
2	Kagoshima United	10	7	2	1	19	11	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	6	2	2	14	7	20
4	Nara Club	10	6	2	2	21	16	20
5	Sagamihara	10	5	3	2	18	12	18
6	FC Osaka	10	4	5	1	18	9	17
7	FC Gifu	10	5	1	4	20	10	16
8	Zweigen Kanazawa	10	4	2	4	17	14	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	3	5	2	7	6	14
10	Reilac Shiga	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	4	2	4	14	14	14
12	Gainare Tottori	10	4	1	5	12	19	13
13	Matsumoto Y FC	10	2	5	3	9	11	11
14	FC Ryukyu	10	3	2	5	11	14	11
15	Tochigi SC	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	10	2	4	4	12	18	10
17	Thespa Gunma	10	3	0	7	10	19	9
18	Fukushima Utd	10	2	2	6	20	25	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	1	2	7	12	20	5
20	Kochi United	10	1	2	7	4	23	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Giravanz Kitakyushu	FC Osaka
Kochi United	2-0 W	4-0 W
Sagamihara	2-1 W	0-1 L
Gainare Tottori	2-4 L	1-1 D
FC Ryukyu	0-3 L	2-2 D
Ehime FC	2-4 L	2-1 W
Matsumoto Y FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Osaka (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Giravanz Kitakyushu

LDDLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
03/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
12/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	11	1	L
09/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
05/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
30/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
29/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	4	4	L

FC Osaka

DWDDDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
03/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
26/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
18/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	5	1	W
14/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
05/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
30/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
22/08	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-1	2-2	4	1	D
16/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-2	6	2	W
08/08	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs FC Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Osaka win (46%). Probabilities: Giravanz Kitakyushu 28%, draw 26%, FC Osaka 46%.

How many goals are expected in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs FC Osaka?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Giravanz Kitakyushu 1.22 · FC Osaka 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs FC Osaka?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.