Football · Japan J3-League · 17/10, 11:00
Prediction: FC Ryukyu vs Tochigi SC
Team pages: FC Ryukyu · Tochigi SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
FC Ryukyu1.25
Tochigi SC1.34
1X2
FC Ryukyu
Draw
Tochigi SC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Ryukyu
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Tochigi SC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Ryukyu
4–1–1
Tochigi SC
(6 last)
- Tochigi SC4-1FC Ryukyu
- FC Ryukyu2-1Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC0-0FC Ryukyu
- FC Ryukyu1-0Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC1-2FC Ryukyu
- FC Ryukyu4-2Tochigi SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Ryukyu 1455 · Tochigi SC 1458
| FC Ryukyu | Draw | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Ryukyu: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ryukyu | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.3 | 2.1 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ryukyu 4–1–1 Tochigi SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Japan J3-League | Tochigi SC | 4-1 HT 3-0 | FC Ryukyu |
| 23/03/25 Japan J3-League | FC Ryukyu | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tochigi SC |
| 25/09/22 Japan J2-League | Tochigi SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Ryukyu |
| 14/05/22 Japan J2-League | FC Ryukyu | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tochigi SC |
| 05/12/21 Japan J2-League | Tochigi SC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FC Ryukyu |
| 15/05/21 Japan J2-League | FC Ryukyu | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Tochigi SC |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 10 | 16 |
| 8 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 |
| 10 | Reilac Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Y FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | FC Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespa Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Fukushima Utd | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 25 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ryukyu | Tochigi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Zweigen Kanazawa | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Kamatamare Sanuki | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Kagoshima United | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Ryukyu (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ryukyu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 03/10 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 20/09 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 15/08 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Tochigi SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/10 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 05/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Ryukyu vs Tochigi SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tochigi SC win (38%). Probabilities: FC Ryukyu 34%, draw 28%, Tochigi SC 38%.
How many goals are expected in FC Ryukyu vs Tochigi SC?
The model expects 2.59 goals (FC Ryukyu 1.25 · Tochigi SC 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Ryukyu vs Tochigi SC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.