Football · Japan J3-League · 31/10, 06:00

Prediction: Fukushima Utd vs Matsumoto Y FC

Team pages: Fukushima Utd · Matsumoto Y FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Fukushima Utd1.57

Matsumoto Y FC1.75

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Fukushima Utd Draw Matsumoto Y FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Fukushima Utd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLDLWW

Matsumoto Y FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Fukushima Utd 2–3–1 Matsumoto Y FC (6 last)

Matsumoto Y FC3-3Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd1-3Matsumoto Y FC
Fukushima Utd1-0Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC1-2Fukushima Utd
Matsumoto Y FC1-1Fukushima Utd
Matsumoto Y FC1-1Fukushima Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fukushima Utd 1488 · Matsumoto Y FC 1488

	Fukushima Utd	Draw	Matsumoto Y FC
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fukushima Utd: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fukushima Utd	Matsumoto Y FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.1	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +4’	2.70	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fukushima Utd 2–3–1 Matsumoto Y FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Matsumoto Y FC	3-3 HT 1-1	Fukushima Utd
29/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Fukushima Utd	1-3 HT 0-1	Matsumoto Y FC
05/10/25 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Matsumoto Y FC
07/06/25 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Fukushima Utd
01/12/24 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Fukushima Utd
27/07/24 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Fukushima Utd

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	27	16	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	30	19	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	19	9	26
4	FC Osaka	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	15	7	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	23	21	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	21	14	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	23	19	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	17	19	17
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	13	23	15
14	Fukushima Utd	13	4	2	7	26	29	14
15	Matsumoto Y FC	13	3	5	5	12	15	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	12	16	14
17	Reilac Shiga	13	4	2	7	17	24	14
18	Thespa Gunma	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	15	25	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	5	28	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fukushima Utd	Matsumoto Y FC
Giravanz Kitakyushu	2-1 W	1-1 D
Kagoshima United	2-3 L	1-0 W
Parceiro Nagano	4-3 W	1-2 L
FC Osaka	1-4 L	0-0 D
Roasso Kumamoto	1-2 L	0-0 D
Thespa Gunma	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Matsumoto Y FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fukushima Utd

DWLLWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-1	4-2	6	1	W
21/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
17/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
10/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
04/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	2-3	8	2	L
26/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-3	6	1	W
18/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
12/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
05/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
29/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	6	2	D

Matsumoto Y FC

DDLDWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	12	2	L
21/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
18/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
11/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
26/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
18/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	11	5	L
05/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
30/08	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fukushima Utd vs Matsumoto Y FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Matsumoto Y FC win (41%). Probabilities: Fukushima Utd 33%, draw 26%, Matsumoto Y FC 41%.

How many goals are expected in Fukushima Utd vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Fukushima Utd 1.57 · Matsumoto Y FC 1.75), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fukushima Utd vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.