Football · Japan J3-League · 03/11, 06:00

Prediction: Tochigi SC vs Fukushima Utd

Team pages: Tochigi SC · Fukushima Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Tochigi SC1.79

Fukushima Utd1.28

1X2

48% 25% 26%

Tochigi SC Draw Fukushima Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tochigi SC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLWDW

Fukushima Utd 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Tochigi SC 4–1–1 Fukushima Utd (6 last)

Tochigi SC1-0Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd2-2Tochigi SC
Fukushima Utd0-2Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC2-1Fukushima Utd
Tochigi SC3-1Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd2-1Tochigi SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tochigi SC 1478 · Fukushima Utd 1477

	Tochigi SC	Draw	Fukushima Utd
Our model	48%	25%	26%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tochigi SC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tochigi SC	Fukushima Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.4	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.72 ★
2	3.00 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.43

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:36 +28’	2.00	3.40	3.00
08:46 +16’	1.85▼	3.50▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:45 +18’	1.91	3.72	3.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tochigi SC 4–1–1 Fukushima Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/10/25 Japan J3-League	Tochigi SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Fukushima Utd
15/06/25 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	2-2 HT 1-0	Tochigi SC
22/10/17 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	0-2 HT 0-1	Tochigi SC
21/05/17 Japan J3-League	Tochigi SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Fukushima Utd
16/10/16 Japan J3-League	Tochigi SC	3-1 HT 2-1	Fukushima Utd
10/04/16 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	2-1	Tochigi SC

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	14	9	3	2	28	17	30
2	Ehime FC	14	8	2	4	30	21	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	14	8	2	4	19	11	26
4	Nara Club	14	8	2	4	25	21	26
5	FC Gifu	14	8	1	5	25	13	25
6	Sagamihara	14	7	4	3	24	15	25
7	Roasso Kumamoto	14	6	6	2	16	8	24
8	FC Osaka	14	6	5	3	23	14	23
9	FC Ryukyu	14	7	2	5	21	17	23
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	14	6	2	6	27	19	20
11	Parceiro Nagano	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	14	5	4	5	21	22	19
13	Matsumoto Y FC	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
14	Tochigi SC	14	4	5	5	14	16	17
15	Gainare Tottori	14	4	3	7	15	28	15
16	Fukushima Utd	14	4	2	8	27	32	14
17	Reilac Shiga	14	4	2	8	18	27	14
18	Thespa Gunma	14	4	1	9	12	26	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	14	2	2	10	15	27	8
20	Kochi United	14	1	3	10	6	31	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tochigi SC	Fukushima Utd
Ehime FC	2-0 W	4-2 W
Reilac Shiga	1-0 W	2-2 D
Matsumoto Y FC	1-2 L	1-3 L
Kagoshima United	1-3 L	2-3 L
Parceiro Nagano	1-1 D	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tochigi SC

WDLLDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	13	1	W
24/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
21/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
17/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
11/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
26/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
19/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
13/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
05/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W

Fukushima Utd

WLLWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
25/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-1	4-2	6	1	W
21/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
17/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
10/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
04/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	2-3	8	2	L
26/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-3	6	1	W
18/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
12/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
05/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tochigi SC vs Fukushima Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tochigi SC win (48%). Probabilities: Tochigi SC 48%, draw 25%, Fukushima Utd 26%.

How many goals are expected in Tochigi SC vs Fukushima Utd?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Tochigi SC 1.79 · Fukushima Utd 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tochigi SC vs Fukushima Utd?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.