Prediction: Rochester FC vs St Croix SC
Expected goals: 4.22 (Rochester FC 1.42 · St Croix SC 2.8). The model gives 17% home, 17% draw, 66% away. Over 3.75 goals (54%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-2.
On recent form, Rochester FC is 3-0-7 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and St Croix SC 4-0-6 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Rochester FC and 2 for St Croix SC.
| Rochester FC | Draw | St Croix SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 18% | 66% |
| Market | 17% | 17% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Rochester FC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rochester FC | St Croix SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3.2 | 2 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3 | 0.7 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rochester FC 4–0–2 St Croix SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 USA USL League Two | St Croix SC | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Rochester FC |
| 11/07/25 USA USL League Two | Rochester FC | 5-0 HT 4-0 | St Croix SC |
| 13/06/25 USA USL League Two | St Croix SC | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Rochester FC |
| 27/06/24 USA USL League Two | St Croix SC | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Rochester FC |
| 19/05/24 USA USL League Two | Rochester FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | St Croix SC |
| 09/07/23 USA USL League Two | St Croix SC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Rochester FC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Heartland Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minneapolis City SC | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 30 |
| 2 | Sueno | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Chicago Dutch Lions | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Rockford Raptors | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
| 5 | St Croix SC | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 24 | 12 |
| 6 | River Light SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 7 | RKC Third Coast | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 8 | Edgewater Castle FC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 6 |
| 9 | Rochester FC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rochester FC | St Croix SC |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Dutch Lions | 0-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Rockford Raptors | 0-2 L | 2-4 L |
| RKC Third Coast | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Edgewater Castle FC | 2-3 L | 7-1 W |
| River Light SC | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Sueno | 0-7 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: St Croix SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rochester FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/06 | RKC Third Coast USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Minneapolis City SC Futures USA USL League Two |
0-5 | 0-8 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Sueno USA USL League Two |
– | 0-7 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
St Croix SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 7-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/07 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/06 | Sueno USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 08/06 | RKC Third Coast USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/06 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Sueno USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rochester FC vs St Croix SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an St Croix SC win (66%). Probabilities: Rochester FC 17%, draw 17%, St Croix SC 66%.
How many goals are expected in Rochester FC vs St Croix SC?
The model expects 4.22 goals (Rochester FC 1.42 · St Croix SC 2.8), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Rochester FC vs St Croix SC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.