Football · USA USL League Two · 17/07, 22:00
Prediction: Steel City vs Northern Indiana FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Steel City1.75
Northern Indiana FC1.14
1X2
Steel City
Draw
Northern Indiana FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Steel City
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Northern Indiana FC
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Steel City 1598 · Northern Indiana FC 1542
| Steel City | Draw | Northern Indiana FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Steel City (rating 1598 vs 1542).
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Steel City | Northern Indiana FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.3 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 6 / 0 |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Valley Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Virginia United | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Northern Indiana FC | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Louisville City FC II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 19 |
| 4 | Kings Hammer Columbus | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 18 |
| 5 | Dayton Dutch Lions FC | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 13 |
| 6 | Toledo Villa FC | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 31 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Steel City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Lorain County Leviathan FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 09/07 | Cleveland Force USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 02/07 | Cleveland Force USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | FC Buffalo USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/06 | Erie Sports Center USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Akron City USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Erie Sports Center USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds II USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | FC Buffalo USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Akron City USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Northern Indiana FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Dayton Dutch Lions FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 09/07 | Toledo Villa FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/07 | Louisville City FC II USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Toledo Villa FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | Kings Hammer Columbus USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Dayton Dutch Lions FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | West Virginia United USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Toledo Villa FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 04/06 | Louisville City FC II USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Kings Hammer Columbus USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Steel City vs Northern Indiana FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Steel City win (51%). Probabilities: Steel City 51%, draw 25%, Northern Indiana FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Steel City vs Northern Indiana FC?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Steel City 1.75 · Northern Indiana FC 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Steel City vs Northern Indiana FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.