Football · USA USL League Two · 18/07, 04:30
Prediction: San Francisco City FC vs FC Tucson
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.37Total
San Francisco City FC1.85
FC Tucson1.52
1X2
San Francisco City FC
Draw
FC Tucson
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
San Francisco City FC
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
FC Tucson
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Francisco City FC 1603 · FC Tucson 1534
| San Francisco City FC | Draw | FC Tucson | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Francisco City FC (rating 1603 vs 1534).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Francisco City FC | FC Tucson | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 2.3 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.8 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Southwest Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ventura County Fusion | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 34 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Redlands FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Tucson | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Capo FC II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 27 | 18 |
| 5 | Stars FC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 16 |
| 6 | City SC San Diego | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 15 |
| 7 | Southern California Eagles | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 11 |
| 8 | AMSG FC | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 39 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Francisco City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Project 51O USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/07 | Davis Legacy USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Academica SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/07 | Project 51O USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | San Francisco Glens SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/06 | Academica SC USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/06 | San Juan FC USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Marin FC Legends USA USL League Two |
5-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/06 | San Francisco Glens SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 04/06 | Almaden SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
FC Tucson
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Capo FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 07/07 | Stars FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | Stars FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/07 | Ventura County Fusion USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | City SC San Diego USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Ventura County Fusion USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | AMSG FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/06 | Capo FC II USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | City SC San Diego USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Southern California Eagles USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Francisco City FC vs FC Tucson?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Francisco City FC win (45%). Probabilities: San Francisco City FC 45%, draw 24%, FC Tucson 31%.
How many goals are expected in San Francisco City FC vs FC Tucson?
The model expects 3.37 goals (San Francisco City FC 1.85 · FC Tucson 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in San Francisco City FC vs FC Tucson?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.