Prediction: Black Rock FC vs Boston Bolts
Expected goals: 3.19 (Black Rock FC 1.96 · Boston Bolts 1.23). The model gives 54% home, 23% draw, 23% away. Over 3 goals (52%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Black Rock FC with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Boston Bolts has piled up 2-2-6 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Black Rock FC won 1 and Boston Bolts 3, with 2 draws.
| Black Rock FC | Draw | Boston Bolts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Black Rock FC (rating 1531 vs 1454).
- H2H favours Boston Bolts: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Black Rock FC | Boston Bolts | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 3.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Black Rock FC 1–2–3 Boston Bolts
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 USA USL League Two | Boston Bolts | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Black Rock FC |
| 13/07/25 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Boston Bolts |
| 26/06/24 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Boston Bolts |
| 27/05/23 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Boston Bolts |
| 23/06/22 USA USL League Two | Boston Bolts | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Black Rock FC |
| 08/07/21 USA USL League Two | Boston Bolts | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Black Rock FC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northeast Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 8 | 34 |
| 2 | New England FC | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Black Rock FC | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | Albany Rush | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Connecticut Rush | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 14 |
| 6 | Seacoast United Phantoms | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 28 | 14 |
| 8 | Boston Bolts | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 11 |
| 9 | AC Connecticut | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 6 |
| 10 | Boston City FC | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 45 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Black Rock FC | Boston Bolts |
|---|---|---|
| Seacoast United Phantoms | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Western Mass Pioneers | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Vermont Green | 1-3 L | 0-5 L |
| AC Connecticut | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Albany Rush | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| New England FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Black Rock FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Black Rock FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 04/07 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 07/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 04/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
Boston Bolts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 29/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Black Rock FC vs Boston Bolts?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Black Rock FC win (54%). Probabilities: Black Rock FC 54%, draw 23%, Boston Bolts 23%.
How many goals are expected in Black Rock FC vs Boston Bolts?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Black Rock FC 1.96 · Boston Bolts 1.23), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Black Rock FC vs Boston Bolts?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.