Football · Japan J3-League · 09/08, 11:30

Prediction: Reilac Shiga vs FC Gifu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Reilac Shiga1.42

FC Gifu1.38

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Reilac Shiga Draw FC Gifu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Reilac Shiga 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Gifu 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Reilac Shiga 1453 · FC Gifu 1499

	Reilac Shiga	Draw	FC Gifu
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gifu (rating 1453 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reilac Shiga	FC Gifu
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.60 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +61’	2.38	3.25	2.60
22:48 +9’	2.45▲	3.25	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Parceiro Nagano	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
1	Kagoshima United	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	FC Osaka	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	Gainare Tottori	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Kochi United	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
5	Matsumoto Y FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
5	Roasso Kumamoto	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
5	Sagamihara	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	Ehime FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Gifu	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Ryukyu	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fukushima Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Giravanz Kitakyushu	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Kamatamare Sanuki	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nara Club	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Reilac Shiga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Tochigi SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Zweigen Kanazawa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
19	Thespa Gunma	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Reilac Shiga

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/06	Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
30/05	FC Osaka Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
24/05	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
17/05	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
13/05	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	2-3	6	1	L
10/05	Kagoshima United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
06/05	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-2	1-4	6	0	L
03/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
29/04	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
25/04	Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-2	5	1	L

FC Gifu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/06	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	11	1	D
31/05	Thespa Gunma Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
23/05	Omiya Ardija Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
16/05	Ventforet Kofu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
09/05	Parceiro Nagano Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
06/05	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
02/05	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
29/04	Iwaki FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/04	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
19/04	Fukushima Utd Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reilac Shiga vs FC Gifu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reilac Shiga win (37%). Probabilities: Reilac Shiga 37%, draw 28%, FC Gifu 35%.

How many goals are expected in Reilac Shiga vs FC Gifu?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Reilac Shiga 1.42 · FC Gifu 1.38), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Reilac Shiga vs FC Gifu?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.