Football · Japan J3-League · 16/08, 11:00
Prediction: Nara Club vs Kagoshima United
Team pages: Nara Club · Kagoshima United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Nara Club1.1
Kagoshima United1.57
1X2
Nara Club
Draw
Kagoshima United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nara Club
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Kagoshima United
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nara Club
1–2–1
Kagoshima United
(4 last)
- Nara Club0-2Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United1-2Nara Club
- Kagoshima United1-1Nara Club
- Nara Club0-0Kagoshima United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nara Club 1499 · Kagoshima United 1541
| Nara Club | Draw | Kagoshima United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1499 vs 1541).
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nara Club | Kagoshima United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.3 | 3.2 / 7.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nara Club 1–2–1 Kagoshima United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/25 Japan J3-League | Nara Club | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Kagoshima United |
| 03/05/25 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Nara Club |
| 05/11/23 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Nara Club |
| 03/06/23 Japan J3-League | Nara Club | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Kagoshima United |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Gifu | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Tochigi SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Parceiro Nagano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Kagoshima United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | FC Osaka | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Gainare Tottori | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Kochi United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Matsumoto Y FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Sagamihara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Thespa Gunma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Nara Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | Reilac Shiga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nara Club | Kagoshima United |
|---|---|---|
| Oita | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| Albirex Niigata | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nara Club
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 23/05 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | FC Osaka Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | FC Imabari Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 29/04 | Kochi United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
Kagoshima United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 29/04 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nara Club vs Kagoshima United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kagoshima United win (47%). Probabilities: Nara Club 26%, draw 27%, Kagoshima United 47%.
How many goals are expected in Nara Club vs Kagoshima United?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Nara Club 1.1 · Kagoshima United 1.57), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nara Club vs Kagoshima United?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.