Football · Japan J3-League · 15/08, 12:00

Prediction: Renofa Yamaguchi vs FC Ryukyu

Team pages: Renofa Yamaguchi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Renofa Yamaguchi1.6

FC Ryukyu0.94

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Renofa Yamaguchi Draw FC Ryukyu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Renofa Yamaguchi 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDDDLL

FC Ryukyu 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLDWD

Head-to-head

Renofa Yamaguchi 3–1–2 FC Ryukyu (6 last)

Renofa Yamaguchi2-0FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu1-1Renofa Yamaguchi
FC Ryukyu0-1Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi2-3FC Ryukyu
Renofa Yamaguchi2-0FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu2-1Renofa Yamaguchi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Renofa Yamaguchi 1484 · FC Ryukyu 1484

	Renofa Yamaguchi	Draw	FC Ryukyu
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	52%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Renofa Yamaguchi: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Renofa Yamaguchi	FC Ryukyu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.82 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.44
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +6’	1.73	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:57	1.82	3.44	3.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Renofa Yamaguchi 3–1–2 FC Ryukyu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Renofa Yamaguchi	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Ryukyu
14/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	FC Ryukyu	1-1 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
18/09/22 Japan J2-League	FC Ryukyu	0-1 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
12/03/22 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	2-3 HT 1-1	FC Ryukyu
03/11/21 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Ryukyu
06/03/21 Japan J2-League	FC Ryukyu	2-1 HT 2-0	Renofa Yamaguchi

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ehime FC	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
2	FC Gifu	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Tochigi SC	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
4	Kamatamare Sanuki	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Parceiro Nagano	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Kagoshima United	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	FC Osaka	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
7	Gainare Tottori	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Kochi United	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	Matsumoto Y FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	Roasso Kumamoto	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	Sagamihara	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	FC Ryukyu	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Giravanz Kitakyushu	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Zweigen Kanazawa	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
16	Fukushima Utd	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Thespa Gunma	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
19	Nara Club	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
20	Reilac Shiga	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Renofa Yamaguchi	FC Ryukyu
Roasso Kumamoto	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sagan Tosu	1-1 D	2-2 D
Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0-1 L	0-1 L
Gainare Tottori	1-4 L	1-3 L
Giravanz Kitakyushu	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ryukyu (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Renofa Yamaguchi

DWLWLDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
06/06	Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
30/05	Kochi United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	2-2	1	2	D
23/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
16/05	Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
09/05	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
06/05	Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	4-1	7	0	W
02/05	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-3	1-4	1	2	L
29/04	FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	2-0	8	5	W
25/04	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	2-2	2	2	D

FC Ryukyu

LDLDLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/06	Fukushima Utd Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	FC Imabari Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
23/05	Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-2	5	0	D
17/05	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-2	1-3	12	1	L
10/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
03/05	Kagoshima United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
29/04	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
25/04	Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
18/04	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Renofa Yamaguchi vs FC Ryukyu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Renofa Yamaguchi win (52%). Probabilities: Renofa Yamaguchi 52%, draw 27%, FC Ryukyu 21%.

How many goals are expected in Renofa Yamaguchi vs FC Ryukyu?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Renofa Yamaguchi 1.6 · FC Ryukyu 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Renofa Yamaguchi vs FC Ryukyu?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.