Football · Japan J3-League · 15/08, 12:00
Prediction: Roasso Kumamoto vs Tochigi SC
Team pages: Roasso Kumamoto · Tochigi SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.12Total
Roasso Kumamoto1.18
Tochigi SC0.95
1X2
Roasso Kumamoto
Draw
Tochigi SC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Roasso Kumamoto
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Tochigi SC
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Roasso Kumamoto
3–2–1
Tochigi SC
(6 last)
- Roasso Kumamoto0-2Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC1-3Roasso Kumamoto
- Roasso Kumamoto3-0Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC1-1Roasso Kumamoto
- Roasso Kumamoto2-0Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC1-1Roasso Kumamoto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roasso Kumamoto 1527 · Tochigi SC 1480
| Roasso Kumamoto | Draw | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roasso Kumamoto (rating 1527 vs 1480).
- H2H favours Roasso Kumamoto: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Roasso Kumamoto | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 0/90/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.2 | 1.9 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roasso Kumamoto 3–2–1 Tochigi SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/24 Japan J2-League | Roasso Kumamoto | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Tochigi SC |
| 02/06/24 Japan J2-League | Tochigi SC | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Roasso Kumamoto |
| 24/09/23 Japan J2-League | Roasso Kumamoto | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Tochigi SC |
| 19/02/23 Japan J2-League | Tochigi SC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Roasso Kumamoto |
| 07/08/22 Japan J2-League | Roasso Kumamoto | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Tochigi SC |
| 17/04/22 Japan J2-League | Tochigi SC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Roasso Kumamoto |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Gifu | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Tochigi SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Parceiro Nagano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Kagoshima United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | FC Osaka | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Gainare Tottori | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Kochi United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Matsumoto Y FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Sagamihara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Thespa Gunma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Nara Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | Reilac Shiga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roasso Kumamoto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | Sagamihara Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Ehime FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Kagoshima United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/04 | Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Tochigi SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 06/05 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 29/04 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roasso Kumamoto vs Tochigi SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Roasso Kumamoto win (41%). Probabilities: Roasso Kumamoto 41%, draw 30%, Tochigi SC 29%.
How many goals are expected in Roasso Kumamoto vs Tochigi SC?
The model expects 2.12 goals (Roasso Kumamoto 1.18 · Tochigi SC 0.95), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Roasso Kumamoto vs Tochigi SC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.