Football · Japan J3-League · 08/08, 12:00

Prediction: Kochi United vs Matsumoto Y FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Kochi United1.15

Matsumoto Y FC1.08

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Kochi United Draw Matsumoto Y FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kochi United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWLLDL

Matsumoto Y FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDDDDLW

Head-to-head

Kochi United 1–1 Matsumoto Y FC (2 last)

Kochi United0-1Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC0-5Kochi United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kochi United 1454 · Matsumoto Y FC 1490

	Kochi United	Draw	Matsumoto Y FC
Our model	36%	32%	32%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kochi United	Matsumoto Y FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:56 +2’	2.38	3.20	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kochi United 1–0–1 Matsumoto Y FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/11/25 Japan J3-League	Kochi United	0-1 HT 0-1	Matsumoto Y FC
05/04/25 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	0-5 HT 0-5	Kochi United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Parceiro Nagano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ehime FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Gifu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Osaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Ryukyu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fukushima Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gainare Tottori	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Giravanz Kitakyushu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kagoshima United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kamatamare Sanuki	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kochi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Matsumoto Y FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nara Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reilac Shiga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Renofa Yamaguchi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roasso Kumamoto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sagamihara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thespa Gunma	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tochigi SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zweigen Kanazawa	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kochi United

LWDDLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/06	Omiya Ardija Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
30/05	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/05	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
17/05	Ehime FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
10/05	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
06/05	FC Imabari Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
02/05	FC Osaka Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	Nara Club Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
26/04	Tokushima Vortis Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
19/04	Kataller Toyama Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-2	0-4	7	3	L

Matsumoto Y FC

LDLWDDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Ventforet Kofu World Club Friendlies	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
06/06	Nara Club Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
31/05	Montedio Yamagata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	10	2	D
24/05	Fukushima Utd Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	3-3	3	3	D
17/05	Iwaki FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
10/05	Fujieda MYFC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
06/05	FC Gifu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
03/05	Ventforet Kofu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
29/04	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
26/04	Parceiro Nagano Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kochi United vs Matsumoto Y FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kochi United win (37%). Probabilities: Kochi United 37%, draw 30%, Matsumoto Y FC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Kochi United vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Kochi United 1.15 · Matsumoto Y FC 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kochi United vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.