Football · Japan J3-League · 08/08, 12:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Kagoshima United1.92

Thespa Gunma1.26

1X2

52% 25% 24%

Kagoshima United Draw Thespa Gunma

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWWDW

Thespa Gunma 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWLL

Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 3–2–1 Thespa Gunma (6 last)

Thespa Gunma2-3Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United5-2Thespa Gunma
Kagoshima United1-1Thespa Gunma
Thespa Gunma1-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United0-2Thespa Gunma
Thespa Gunma0-2Kagoshima United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1513 · Thespa Gunma 1502

	Kagoshima United	Draw	Thespa Gunma
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kagoshima United: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	Thespa Gunma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.6	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:56 +2’	1.75	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 3–2–1 Thespa Gunma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/25 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	2-3 HT 1-2	Kagoshima United
08/03/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	5-2 HT 2-1	Thespa Gunma
13/07/24 Japan J2-League	Kagoshima United	1-1 HT 0-0	Thespa Gunma
25/02/24 Japan J2-League	Thespa Gunma	1-1 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
22/07/18 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	0-2 HT 0-1	Thespa Gunma
07/04/18 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	0-2 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Parceiro Nagano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ehime FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Gifu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Osaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Ryukyu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fukushima Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gainare Tottori	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Giravanz Kitakyushu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kagoshima United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kamatamare Sanuki	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kochi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Matsumoto Y FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nara Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reilac Shiga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Renofa Yamaguchi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roasso Kumamoto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sagamihara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thespa Gunma	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tochigi SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zweigen Kanazawa	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kagoshima United

LLDDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/06	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
30/05	Albirex Niigata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
24/05	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	5-1	9	2	W
17/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/05	Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
06/05	Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
03/05	FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	1-1	12	1	D
29/04	Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
25/04	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
18/04	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	1-2	10	3	L

Thespa Gunma

WWLWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/06	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-4	5	5	L
31/05	FC Gifu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
23/05	Sagamihara Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	7-2	5	4	W
17/05	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
09/05	Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/05	Montedio Yamagata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
03/05	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
29/04	Vegalta Sendai Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-3	4	3	L
25/04	Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
18/04	Shonan Bellmare Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	2-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (52%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 52%, draw 25%, Thespa Gunma 24%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Kagoshima United 1.92 · Thespa Gunma 1.26), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.