Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 02/11, 18:00

Prediction: Metalac Gornji vs Jedinstvo UB

Team pages: Metalac Gornji · Jedinstvo UB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Metalac Gornji1.64

Jedinstvo UB1.13

1X2

48% 26% 25%

Metalac Gornji Draw Jedinstvo UB

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Metalac Gornji 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDLLL

Jedinstvo UB 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLDLWW

Head-to-head

Metalac Gornji 1–1–3 Jedinstvo UB (5 last)

Jedinstvo UB0-1Metalac Gornji
Jedinstvo UB2-0Metalac Gornji
Metalac Gornji0-0Jedinstvo UB
Metalac Gornji0-1Jedinstvo UB
Jedinstvo UB3-1Metalac Gornji

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metalac Gornji 1501 · Jedinstvo UB 1454

	Metalac Gornji	Draw	Jedinstvo UB
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metalac Gornji (rating 1501 vs 1454).
H2H favours Jedinstvo UB: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metalac Gornji	Jedinstvo UB
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +14’	1.85	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metalac Gornji 1–1–3 Jedinstvo UB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	Jedinstvo UB	0-1 HT 0-1	Metalac Gornji
29/03/24 Serbia Prva Liga	Jedinstvo UB	2-0 HT 1-0	Metalac Gornji
15/10/23 Serbia Prva Liga	Metalac Gornji	0-0 HT 0-0	Jedinstvo UB
08/04/23 Serbia Prva Liga	Metalac Gornji	0-1 HT 0-0	Jedinstvo UB
08/10/22 Serbia Prva Liga	Jedinstvo UB	3-1 HT 1-1	Metalac Gornji

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Backa Topola	15	9	6	0	35	16	33
2	Javor Ivanjica	15	8	6	1	35	16	30
3	Borac Cacak	15	9	3	3	27	20	30
4	OFK Vrsac	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
5	Smederevo	15	7	4	4	22	16	25
6	FK Dubocica	15	6	4	5	16	17	22
7	FK Napredak	15	6	4	5	14	15	22
8	Loznica	15	4	8	3	19	21	20
9	FK Vozdovac	15	5	4	6	15	14	19
10	Spartak Subotica	15	5	4	6	24	28	19
11	FK Proleter 023	15	4	6	5	22	17	18
12	Metalac Gornji	15	5	3	7	18	22	18
13	Jedinstvo UB	15	4	2	9	17	25	14
14	Teleoptik	15	3	4	8	18	26	13
15	FK Graficar Beograd	15	3	2	10	18	29	11
16	Bor 1919	15	2	2	11	8	30	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metalac Gornji	Jedinstvo UB
Bor 1919	2-0 W	2-0 W
FK Graficar Beograd	1-0 W	3-1 W
Borac Cacak	2-1 W	1-3 L
FK Dubocica	5-0 W	0-0 D
FK Proleter 023	0-0 D	0-3 L
Loznica	2-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Metalac Gornji (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metalac Gornji

LDWWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
17/10	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-5	7	4	L
10/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	12	3	L
04/10	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
28/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
21/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
05/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-4	6	0	L

Jedinstvo UB

DLWLLLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
17/10	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
10/10	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-3	1	3	L
04/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
21/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
16/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
12/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
05/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metalac Gornji vs Jedinstvo UB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metalac Gornji win (48%). Probabilities: Metalac Gornji 48%, draw 26%, Jedinstvo UB 25%.

How many goals are expected in Metalac Gornji vs Jedinstvo UB?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Metalac Gornji 1.64 · Jedinstvo UB 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Metalac Gornji vs Jedinstvo UB?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.