Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 17/10, 14:00

Prediction: Smederevo vs FK Proleter 023

Team pages: Smederevo · FK Proleter 023

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Smederevo1.87

FK Proleter 0230.62

1X2

67% 22% 11%

Smederevo Draw FK Proleter 023

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Smederevo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWWWWL

FK Proleter 023 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDDDLWWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Smederevo 1515 · FK Proleter 023 1513

	Smederevo	Draw	FK Proleter 023
Our model	66%	23%	11%
Market	67%	22%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Smederevo	FK Proleter 023
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.8	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.10

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	3.60 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	4.33 → 8.00▲	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +12’	1.65	3.60	4.33
15:44 +11’	1.33▼	4.10▲	8.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	13	9	1	3	24	17	28
2	FK Backa Topola	13	7	6	0	28	14	27
3	Javor Ivanjica	13	6	6	1	30	15	24
4	Smederevo	13	7	3	3	21	14	24
5	OFK Vrsac	13	7	1	5	16	13	22
6	FK Dubocica	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
7	FK Vozdovac	13	5	3	5	13	11	18
8	Metalac Gornji	13	5	3	5	16	15	18
9	Loznica	13	4	6	3	17	19	18
10	FK Napredak	13	5	3	5	13	15	18
11	Spartak Subotica	13	4	3	6	19	25	15
12	FK Proleter 023	13	3	5	5	19	15	14
13	Teleoptik	13	3	4	6	17	23	13
14	FK Graficar Beograd	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
15	Jedinstvo UB	13	2	2	9	12	24	8
16	Bor 1919	13	2	2	9	8	25	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Smederevo	FK Proleter 023
FK Napredak	4-1 W	0-0 D
Spartak Subotica	2-1 W	6-0 W
Jedinstvo UB	1-2 L	3-0 W
Javor Ivanjica	1-3 L	2-4 L
FK Backa Topola	1-1 D	1-1 D
Teleoptik	1-1 D	1-1 D
Metalac Gornji	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Proleter 023 (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Smederevo

DDDLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
05/10	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
26/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
21/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
16/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
12/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
05/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
24/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
19/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

FK Proleter 023

LWLDDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
04/10	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	3-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	2	8	W
21/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	2-4	4	3	L
16/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
05/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
30/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
24/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Smederevo vs FK Proleter 023?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Smederevo win (67%). Probabilities: Smederevo 67%, draw 22%, FK Proleter 023 11%.

How many goals are expected in Smederevo vs FK Proleter 023?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Smederevo 1.87 · FK Proleter 023 0.62), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Smederevo vs FK Proleter 023?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.