Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 17/10, 18:00

Prediction: FK Backa Topola vs Metalac Gornji

Team pages: FK Backa Topola · Metalac Gornji

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FK Backa Topola2.13

Metalac Gornji0.66

1X2

71% 19% 10%

FK Backa Topola Draw Metalac Gornji

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Backa Topola 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDDDWW

Metalac Gornji 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWWWDL

Head-to-head

FK Backa Topola 3–1–2 Metalac Gornji (6 last)

FK Backa Topola1-2Metalac Gornji
Metalac Gornji2-4FK Backa Topola
Metalac Gornji0-0FK Backa Topola
FK Backa Topola2-3Metalac Gornji
FK Backa Topola1-0Metalac Gornji
Metalac Gornji2-5FK Backa Topola

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Backa Topola 1567 · Metalac Gornji 1512

	FK Backa Topola	Draw	Metalac Gornji
Our model	70%	20%	9%
Market	72%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Backa Topola (rating 1567 vs 1512).
H2H favours FK Backa Topola: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Backa Topola	Metalac Gornji
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.8	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.25▼	Bet365 1.25
X	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	6.50 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:23 +7’	1.36	4.33	6.50
19:29 +42’	1.25▼	5.00▲	8.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Backa Topola 3–1–2 Metalac Gornji

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/11/21 Serbia Super Liga	FK Backa Topola	1-2 HT 1-1	Metalac Gornji
25/07/21 Serbia Super Liga	Metalac Gornji	2-4 HT 1-2	FK Backa Topola
27/02/21 Serbia Super Liga	Metalac Gornji	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Backa Topola
21/08/20 Serbia Super Liga	FK Backa Topola	2-3 HT 0-1	Metalac Gornji
05/05/19 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Backa Topola	1-0 HT 1-0	Metalac Gornji
25/11/18 Serbia Prva Liga	Metalac Gornji	2-5 HT 1-2	FK Backa Topola

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	13	9	1	3	24	17	28
2	FK Backa Topola	13	7	6	0	28	14	27
3	OFK Vrsac	14	8	1	5	17	13	25
4	Javor Ivanjica	13	6	6	1	30	15	24
5	Smederevo	13	7	3	3	21	14	24
6	FK Dubocica	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
7	FK Vozdovac	13	5	3	5	13	11	18
8	Metalac Gornji	13	5	3	5	16	15	18
9	Loznica	13	4	6	3	17	19	18
10	FK Napredak	13	5	3	5	13	15	18
11	Spartak Subotica	13	4	3	6	19	25	15
12	FK Proleter 023	13	3	5	5	19	15	14
13	Teleoptik	14	3	4	7	17	24	13
14	FK Graficar Beograd	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
15	Jedinstvo UB	13	2	2	9	12	24	8
16	Bor 1919	13	2	2	9	8	25	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Backa Topola	Metalac Gornji
Bor 1919	4-1 W	2-0 W
FK Graficar Beograd	4-1 W	1-0 W
Borac Cacak	2-2 D	2-1 W
FK Dubocica	0-0 D	5-0 W
FK Proleter 023	1-1 D	0-0 D
Loznica	4-0 W	2-4 L
FK Vozdovac	3-2 W	0-1 L
Smederevo	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Backa Topola (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Backa Topola

DWDWWDDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	4-1	4	3	W
05/10	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
26/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
21/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
16/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	9	6	W
07/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
30/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	8	9	D
23/08	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
19/08	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	10	7	D

Metalac Gornji

DLLDWWWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	12	3	L
04/10	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
28/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
21/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
05/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-4	6	0	L
23/08	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
19/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Backa Topola vs Metalac Gornji?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Backa Topola win (71%). Probabilities: FK Backa Topola 71%, draw 19%, Metalac Gornji 10%.

How many goals are expected in FK Backa Topola vs Metalac Gornji?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FK Backa Topola 2.13 · Metalac Gornji 0.66), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Backa Topola vs Metalac Gornji?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.