Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 11/10, 18:00

Prediction: FK Dubocica vs Spartak Subotica

Team pages: FK Dubocica · Spartak Subotica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FK Dubocica1.33

Spartak Subotica1.46

1X2

33% 28% 39%

FK Dubocica Draw Spartak Subotica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Dubocica 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWDDD

Spartak Subotica 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Dubocica 0–1–0 Spartak Subotica (1 last)

Spartak Subotica1-1FK Dubocica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Dubocica 1491 · Spartak Subotica 1437

	FK Dubocica	Draw	Spartak Subotica
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Dubocica (rating 1491 vs 1437).
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Dubocica	Spartak Subotica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +6’	2.70	3.20	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Dubocica 0–1–0 Spartak Subotica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/10/21 Serbia Cup	Spartak Subotica	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Dubocica

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	13	9	1	3	24	17	28
2	FK Backa Topola	12	6	6	0	24	13	24
3	Smederevo	12	7	3	2	21	13	24
4	Javor Ivanjica	12	6	5	1	29	14	23
5	OFK Vrsac	12	7	1	4	16	11	22
6	Metalac Gornji	13	5	3	5	16	15	18
7	FK Napredak	12	5	2	5	13	15	17
8	FK Dubocica	12	4	4	4	13	15	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	4	3	5	11	11	15
10	Loznica	12	3	6	3	16	19	15
11	Spartak Subotica	12	4	3	5	18	23	15
12	FK Proleter 023	12	3	4	5	19	15	13
13	Teleoptik	13	3	4	6	17	23	13
14	FK Graficar Beograd	12	3	1	8	16	23	10
15	Jedinstvo UB	13	2	2	9	12	24	8
16	Bor 1919	12	2	2	8	7	21	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Dubocica	Spartak Subotica
Jedinstvo UB	0-0 D	1-1 D
Javor Ivanjica	1-1 D	2-2 D
FK Backa Topola	0-0 D	2-2 D
Teleoptik	2-0 W	2-4 L
OFK Vrsac	1-2 L	2-0 W
FK Proleter 023	3-2 W	0-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Dubocica (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Dubocica

WLLWLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
28/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-3	0-5	3	5	L
06/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
31/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
23/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
19/08	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	5	8	L
15/08	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	3-2	2	10	W

Spartak Subotica

LDDDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-3	0-6	1	5	L
28/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
21/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
16/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
11/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
29/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
24/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	2-2	0	10	D
19/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	1	7	D
14/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-4	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Dubocica vs Spartak Subotica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spartak Subotica win (39%). Probabilities: FK Dubocica 33%, draw 28%, Spartak Subotica 39%.

How many goals are expected in FK Dubocica vs Spartak Subotica?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FK Dubocica 1.33 · Spartak Subotica 1.46), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Dubocica vs Spartak Subotica?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.