Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 11/10, 14:00

Prediction: Bor 1919 vs FK Backa Topola

Team pages: Bor 1919 · FK Backa Topola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Bor 19191.07

FK Backa Topola1.81

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Bor 1919 Draw FK Backa Topola

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bor 1919 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLLLLL

FK Backa Topola 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWDDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bor 1919 1446 · FK Backa Topola 1564

	Bor 1919	Draw	FK Backa Topola
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Backa Topola (rating 1446 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bor 1919	FK Backa Topola
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +18’	4.10	3.80	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	12	8	1	3	21	16	25
2	FK Backa Topola	12	6	6	0	24	13	24
3	Smederevo	12	7	3	2	21	13	24
4	Javor Ivanjica	12	6	5	1	29	14	23
5	OFK Vrsac	12	7	1	4	16	11	22
6	Metalac Gornji	12	5	3	4	16	12	18
7	FK Napredak	12	5	2	5	13	15	17
8	FK Dubocica	12	4	4	4	13	15	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	4	3	5	11	11	15
10	Loznica	12	3	6	3	16	19	15
11	Spartak Subotica	12	4	3	5	18	23	15
12	FK Proleter 023	12	3	4	5	19	15	13
13	FK Graficar Beograd	12	3	1	8	16	23	10
14	Teleoptik	12	2	4	6	14	23	10
15	Jedinstvo UB	12	2	2	8	11	21	8
16	Bor 1919	12	2	2	8	7	21	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bor 1919	FK Backa Topola
FK Graficar Beograd	0-3 L	4-1 W
Borac Cacak	0-1 L	2-2 D
FK Dubocica	2-1 W	0-0 D
FK Proleter 023	2-1 W	1-1 D
Loznica	0-0 D	4-0 W
FK Vozdovac	2-2 D	3-2 W
Smederevo	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Backa Topola (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bor 1919

LDDWWLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
28/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
17/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
13/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
06/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	1	8	W
30/08	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
23/08	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
19/08	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
15/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-4	1-4	4	4	L

FK Backa Topola

WDWDWWDDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
26/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
21/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
16/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	9	6	W
07/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
30/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	8	9	D
23/08	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
19/08	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	10	7	D
15/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bor 1919 vs FK Backa Topola?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Backa Topola win (54%). Probabilities: Bor 1919 22%, draw 24%, FK Backa Topola 54%.

How many goals are expected in Bor 1919 vs FK Backa Topola?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Bor 1919 1.07 · FK Backa Topola 1.81), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bor 1919 vs FK Backa Topola?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.