Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 11/10, 14:00

Prediction: FK Proleter 023 vs FK Napredak

Team pages: FK Proleter 023 · FK Napredak

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

FK Proleter 0231.36

FK Napredak1.34

1X2

36% 29% 35%

FK Proleter 023 Draw FK Napredak

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Proleter 023 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDDLWW

FK Napredak 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLLDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Proleter 023 1503 · FK Napredak 1469

	FK Proleter 023	Draw	FK Napredak
Our model	36%	28%	35%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Proleter 023	FK Napredak
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +18’	2.50	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	12	8	1	3	21	16	25
2	FK Backa Topola	12	6	6	0	24	13	24
3	Smederevo	12	7	3	2	21	13	24
4	Javor Ivanjica	12	6	5	1	29	14	23
5	OFK Vrsac	12	7	1	4	16	11	22
6	Metalac Gornji	12	5	3	4	16	12	18
7	FK Napredak	12	5	2	5	13	15	17
8	FK Dubocica	12	4	4	4	13	15	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	4	3	5	11	11	15
10	Loznica	12	3	6	3	16	19	15
11	Spartak Subotica	12	4	3	5	18	23	15
12	FK Proleter 023	12	3	4	5	19	15	13
13	FK Graficar Beograd	12	3	1	8	16	23	10
14	Teleoptik	12	2	4	6	14	23	10
15	Jedinstvo UB	12	2	2	8	11	21	8
16	Bor 1919	12	2	2	8	7	21	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Proleter 023	FK Napredak
Spartak Subotica	6-0 W	0-1 L
Jedinstvo UB	3-0 W	2-1 W
Javor Ivanjica	2-4 L	0-3 L
FK Backa Topola	1-1 D	1-2 L
Teleoptik	1-1 D	1-1 D
Metalac Gornji	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Proleter 023 (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Proleter 023

LLWLDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	3-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	2	8	W
21/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	2-4	4	3	L
16/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
05/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
30/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
24/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
15/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-3	7	10	L

FK Napredak

WDLLWLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
29/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
21/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	6	7	L
16/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
11/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
23/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
19/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
14/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	7	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Proleter 023 vs FK Napredak?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Proleter 023 win (36%). Probabilities: FK Proleter 023 36%, draw 29%, FK Napredak 35%.

How many goals are expected in FK Proleter 023 vs FK Napredak?

The model expects 2.7 goals (FK Proleter 023 1.36 · FK Napredak 1.34), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Proleter 023 vs FK Napredak?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.