Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 12/10, 18:00

Prediction: Loznica vs Smederevo

Team pages: Loznica · Smederevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Loznica1.35

Smederevo1.29

1X2

37% 28% 34%

Loznica Draw Smederevo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Loznica 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDLDWWL

Smederevo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Loznica 1–3 Smederevo (4 last)

Loznica1-0Smederevo
Smederevo2-0Loznica
Loznica1-2Smederevo
Smederevo3-0Loznica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Loznica 1504 · Smederevo 1530

	Loznica	Draw	Smederevo
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Smederevo: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Loznica	Smederevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +2’	2.40	3.20	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Loznica 1–0–3 Smederevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/11/25 Serbia Prva Liga	Loznica	1-0 HT 1-0	Smederevo
16/08/25 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	2-0 HT 1-0	Loznica
18/05/19 Serbia Srpska Liga	Loznica	1-2 HT 0-0	Smederevo
03/11/18 Serbia Srpska Liga	Smederevo	3-0 HT 2-0	Loznica

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	13	9	1	3	24	17	28
2	FK Backa Topola	12	6	6	0	24	13	24
3	Smederevo	12	7	3	2	21	13	24
4	Javor Ivanjica	12	6	5	1	29	14	23
5	OFK Vrsac	12	7	1	4	16	11	22
6	Metalac Gornji	13	5	3	5	16	15	18
7	FK Napredak	12	5	2	5	13	15	17
8	FK Dubocica	12	4	4	4	13	15	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	4	3	5	11	11	15
10	Loznica	12	3	6	3	16	19	15
11	Spartak Subotica	12	4	3	5	18	23	15
12	FK Proleter 023	12	3	4	5	19	15	13
13	Teleoptik	13	3	4	6	17	23	13
14	FK Graficar Beograd	12	3	1	8	16	23	10
15	Jedinstvo UB	13	2	2	9	12	24	8
16	Bor 1919	12	2	2	8	7	21	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Loznica	Smederevo
FK Napredak	0-3 L	4-1 W
Spartak Subotica	2-0 W	2-1 W
Jedinstvo UB	3-2 W	1-2 L
Javor Ivanjica	2-2 D	1-3 L
FK Backa Topola	0-4 L	1-1 D
Teleoptik	1-1 D	1-1 D
Metalac Gornji	4-2 W	0-0 D
Bor 1919	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Loznica (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Loznica

LDDWDLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
28/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
21/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
17/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-2	0	6	D
12/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-4	1	6	L
06/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	11	6	D
29/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	4-2	3	0	W
23/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
19/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
14/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L

Smederevo

WDDDLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
26/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
21/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
16/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
12/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
05/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
24/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
19/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	4-0	4-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Loznica vs Smederevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Loznica win (37%). Probabilities: Loznica 37%, draw 28%, Smederevo 34%.

How many goals are expected in Loznica vs Smederevo?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Loznica 1.35 · Smederevo 1.29), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Loznica vs Smederevo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.