Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 28/09, 20:00

Prediction: Loznica vs Spartak Subotica

Team pages: Loznica · Spartak Subotica

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Loznica1.44

Spartak Subotica1.43

1X2

36% 28% 35%

Loznica Draw Spartak Subotica

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Loznica 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDDWDLDW

Spartak Subotica 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDDWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Loznica 1502 · Spartak Subotica 1502

	Loznica	Draw	Spartak Subotica
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Loznica	Spartak Subotica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.69 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.55 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +3’	2.55	3.10	2.55
05:54 +8’	2.60▲	3.00▼	2.60▲
10:57 +6’	2.55▼	3.00	2.63▲
16:58 +4’	2.45▼	3.10▲	2.75▲
19:01 +3’	2.55▲	3.10	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +50’	2.36	2.97	2.75
18:01 +2’	2.39▲	3.01▲	2.78▲
18:30 +34’	2.69▲	3.01	2.46▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	11	8	1	2	20	13	25
2	FK Backa Topola	11	5	6	0	20	12	21
3	Smederevo	11	6	3	2	20	13	21
4	OFK Vrsac	11	7	0	4	16	11	21
5	Javor Ivanjica	10	5	4	1	25	12	19
6	Spartak Subotica	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
7	Metalac Gornji	10	4	2	4	14	12	14
8	FK Vozdovac	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	FK Dubocica	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
10	FK Napredak	10	4	1	5	10	15	13
11	Loznica	10	2	6	2	14	16	12
12	Bor 1919	10	2	2	6	7	17	8
13	FK Proleter 023	10	1	4	5	10	15	7
14	Jedinstvo UB	10	2	1	7	11	18	7
14	FK Graficar Beograd	10	2	1	7	11	18	7
16	Teleoptik	10	1	4	5	11	19	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Loznica	Spartak Subotica
Jedinstvo UB	3-2 W	1-1 D
Javor Ivanjica	2-2 D	2-2 D
FK Backa Topola	0-4 L	2-2 D
Teleoptik	1-1 D	2-4 L
Metalac Gornji	4-2 W	4-2 W
Bor 1919	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Loznica

DDLDDWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
17/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-2	0	6	D
12/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-4	1	6	L
06/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	11	6	D
29/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	4-2	3	0	W
23/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
19/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
14/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
08/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
31/07	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Spartak Subotica

WWLDDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
16/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
11/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
29/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
24/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	2-2	0	10	D
19/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
14/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
08/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	4-2	3	4	W
01/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Loznica vs Spartak Subotica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Loznica win (36%). Probabilities: Loznica 36%, draw 28%, Spartak Subotica 35%.

How many goals are expected in Loznica vs Spartak Subotica?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Loznica 1.44 · Spartak Subotica 1.43), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Loznica vs Spartak Subotica?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.