Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 26/09, 14:00

Prediction: Smederevo vs OFK Vrsac

Team pages: Smederevo · OFK Vrsac

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Smederevo1.48

OFK Vrsac1.01

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Smederevo Draw OFK Vrsac

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Smederevo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDLLWW

OFK Vrsac 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Smederevo 3–1–2 OFK Vrsac (6 last)

OFK Vrsac0-0Smederevo
Smederevo3-0OFK Vrsac
Smederevo2-1OFK Vrsac
OFK Vrsac2-0Smederevo
Smederevo0-2OFK Vrsac
Smederevo1-0OFK Vrsac

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Smederevo 1543 · OFK Vrsac 1539

	Smederevo	Draw	OFK Vrsac
Our model	47%	29%	24%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Smederevo: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Smederevo	OFK Vrsac
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.90▲	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.20 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +3’	1.73	3.40	4.20
08:16 +7’	1.90▲	3.30▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:13 +10’	2.04	2.99	3.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Smederevo 3–1–2 OFK Vrsac

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Serbia Prva Liga	OFK Vrsac	0-0 HT 0-0	Smederevo
25/10/25 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	3-0 HT 1-0	OFK Vrsac
22/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Smederevo	2-1 HT 0-0	OFK Vrsac
16/11/24 Serbia Prva Liga	OFK Vrsac	2-0 HT 1-0	Smederevo
05/08/24 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	0-2 HT 0-1	OFK Vrsac
26/11/23 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	1-0 HT 1-0	OFK Vrsac

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	10	8	0	2	18	11	24
2	OFK Vrsac	10	7	0	3	16	10	21
3	FK Backa Topola	10	5	5	0	18	10	20
4	Javor Ivanjica	10	5	4	1	25	12	19
5	Smederevo	10	5	3	2	19	13	18
6	Spartak Subotica	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
7	Metalac Gornji	10	4	2	4	14	12	14
8	FK Vozdovac	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	FK Dubocica	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
10	FK Napredak	10	4	1	5	10	15	13
11	Loznica	10	2	6	2	14	16	12
12	Bor 1919	10	2	2	6	7	17	8
13	FK Proleter 023	10	1	4	5	10	15	7
14	Jedinstvo UB	10	2	1	7	11	18	7
14	FK Graficar Beograd	10	2	1	7	11	18	7
16	Teleoptik	10	1	4	5	11	19	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Smederevo	OFK Vrsac
FK Napredak	4-1 W	2-1 W
Spartak Subotica	2-1 W	0-2 L
Jedinstvo UB	1-2 L	3-1 W
Javor Ivanjica	1-3 L	2-1 W
FK Backa Topola	1-1 D	0-1 L
Bor 1919	4-1 W	1-0 W
FK Graficar Beograd	2-1 W	4-1 W
Borac Cacak	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Smederevo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Smederevo

WWWDDDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
16/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
12/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
05/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
24/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
19/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	4-0	4-1	4	4	W
09/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
01/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	5	6	W

OFK Vrsac

LWWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
16/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	4-1	4-1	1	4	W
05/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
30/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	10	6	L
23/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	13	8	W
15/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
08/08	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
01/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Smederevo vs OFK Vrsac?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Smederevo win (47%). Probabilities: Smederevo 47%, draw 28%, OFK Vrsac 25%.

How many goals are expected in Smederevo vs OFK Vrsac?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Smederevo 1.48 · OFK Vrsac 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Smederevo vs OFK Vrsac?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.