Football · Serbia Super Liga · 15/08, 19:00

Prediction: FK Radnik Surdulica vs FK Macva Sabac

Team pages: FK Radnik Surdulica · FK Macva Sabac

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

FK Radnik Surdulica1.48

FK Macva Sabac0.8

1X2

53% 27% 20%

FK Radnik Surdulica Draw FK Macva Sabac

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Radnik Surdulica 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWWDDL

FK Macva Sabac 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

FK Radnik Surdulica 4–1–1 FK Macva Sabac (6 last)

FK Radnik Surdulica4-0FK Macva Sabac
FK Radnik Surdulica1-0FK Macva Sabac
FK Macva Sabac1-0FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Macva Sabac0-5FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnik Surdulica3-0FK Macva Sabac
FK Radnik Surdulica2-2FK Macva Sabac

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Radnik Surdulica 1477 · FK Macva Sabac 1454

	FK Radnik Surdulica	Draw	FK Macva Sabac
Our model	52%	29%	19%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Radnik Surdulica: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Radnik Surdulica	FK Macva Sabac
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.6	1.6 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +4’	1.73	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Radnik Surdulica 4–1–1 FK Macva Sabac

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/25 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	4-0 HT 2-0	FK Macva Sabac
08/12/24 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Macva Sabac
25/08/24 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Macva Sabac	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Radnik Surdulica
29/04/21 Serbia Super Liga	FK Macva Sabac	0-5 HT 0-4	FK Radnik Surdulica
20/11/20 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Macva Sabac
22/02/20 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Macva Sabac

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	3	3	0	0	10	1	9
2	IMT Novi Belgrade	4	3	0	1	7	2	9
3	Vojvodina	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
4	FK Cukaricki	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
5	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
6	OFK Beograd	4	1	2	1	6	7	5
7	Mladost Lucani	4	0	4	0	3	3	4
8	FK Novi Pazar	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
9	Partizan Belgrade	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
10	FK Radnicki 1923	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
11	Radnicki Nis	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
12	FK Macva Sabac	4	1	0	3	2	10	3
13	FK Radnik Surdulica	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
14	FK Zemun	4	0	1	3	2	10	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Radnik Surdulica	FK Macva Sabac
Vojvodina	1-2 L	0-2 L
Mladost Lucani	1-1 D	1-2 L
FK Novi Pazar	1-0 W	2-1 W
Partizan Belgrade	0-5 L	1-3 L
Crvena Zvezda	0-0 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Radnik Surdulica (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Radnik Surdulica

LDDLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
25/07	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
19/07	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/07	FK Novi Pazar Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
04/07	Buducnost Podgorica Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
30/06	Levski Sofia Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-5	3	4	L
23/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
17/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
09/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
04/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-4	7	5	L

FK Macva Sabac

WLDWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	4	9	L
26/07	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	4	12	L
17/07	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-3	0-5	0	2	L
14/07	FK Proleter 023 Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
05/07	Mladost Lucani Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
01/07	FK Novi Pazar Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/06	OFK Petrovac Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
09/05	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	0	12	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Radnik Surdulica vs FK Macva Sabac?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Radnik Surdulica win (53%). Probabilities: FK Radnik Surdulica 53%, draw 27%, FK Macva Sabac 20%.

How many goals are expected in FK Radnik Surdulica vs FK Macva Sabac?

The model expects 2.29 goals (FK Radnik Surdulica 1.48 · FK Macva Sabac 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Radnik Surdulica vs FK Macva Sabac?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.