Football · Serbia Super Liga · 25/10, 16:00
Prediction: OFK Beograd vs Crvena Zvezda
Team pages: OFK Beograd · Crvena Zvezda
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.55Total
OFK Beograd0.95
Crvena Zvezda2.6
1X2
OFK Beograd
Draw
Crvena Zvezda
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2 10%
Recent form · 10 last
OFK Beograd
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Crvena Zvezda
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
OFK Beograd
1–5
Crvena Zvezda
(6 last)
- Crvena Zvezda1-2OFK Beograd
- OFK Beograd3-4Crvena Zvezda
- Crvena Zvezda7-1OFK Beograd
- Crvena Zvezda5-2OFK Beograd
- Crvena Zvezda3-1OFK Beograd
- Crvena Zvezda5-3OFK Beograd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · OFK Beograd 1464 · Crvena Zvezda 1605
| OFK Beograd | Draw | Crvena Zvezda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| Market | 11% | 17% | 72% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1464 vs 1605).
- H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| OFK Beograd | Crvena Zvezda | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3 | 2.5 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Beograd 1–0–5 Crvena Zvezda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 1-2 HT 0-1 | OFK Beograd |
| 30/11/25 Serbia Super Liga | OFK Beograd | 3-4 HT 2-2 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 26/07/25 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 7-1 HT 2-0 | OFK Beograd |
| 27/04/25 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 5-2 HT 3-0 | OFK Beograd |
| 06/04/25 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 3-1 HT 3-0 | OFK Beograd |
| 26/03/25 Serbia Cup | Crvena Zvezda | 5-3 HT 3-3 | OFK Beograd |
Standings · Serbia Super Liga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 28 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Belgrade | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 17 |
| 8 | FK Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 9 | FK Novi Pazar | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| 10 | Partizan Belgrade | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 11 |
| 12 | FK Macva Sabac | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki Nis | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 8 |
| 14 | FK Zemun | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 3 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | OFK Beograd | Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Mladost Lucani | 0-0 D | 5-1 W |
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 3-5 L | 3-0 W |
| Radnicki Nis | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| IMT Novi Belgrade | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Partizan Belgrade | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Zemun | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| FK Cukaricki | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| FK Novi Pazar | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 4 L | 9 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
OFK Beograd
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/10 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
2-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 31/08 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 01/08 | FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Crvena Zvezda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/09 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/09 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in OFK Beograd vs Crvena Zvezda?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Crvena Zvezda win (72%). Probabilities: OFK Beograd 11%, draw 17%, Crvena Zvezda 72%.
How many goals are expected in OFK Beograd vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model expects 3.55 goals (OFK Beograd 0.95 · Crvena Zvezda 2.6), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in OFK Beograd vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.