Football · Serbia Super Liga · 01/11, 18:00
Prediction: FK Macva Sabac vs Crvena Zvezda
Team pages: FK Macva Sabac · Crvena Zvezda
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
FK Macva Sabac0.52
Crvena Zvezda2.52
1X2
FK Macva Sabac
Draw
Crvena Zvezda
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-2 15%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Macva Sabac
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Crvena Zvezda
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Macva Sabac
0–6
Crvena Zvezda
(6 last)
- Crvena Zvezda5-0FK Macva Sabac
- FK Macva Sabac0-2Crvena Zvezda
- Crvena Zvezda4-0FK Macva Sabac
- FK Macva Sabac0-3Crvena Zvezda
- FK Macva Sabac0-3Crvena Zvezda
- Crvena Zvezda1-0FK Macva Sabac
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Macva Sabac 1456 · Crvena Zvezda 1622
| FK Macva Sabac | Draw | Crvena Zvezda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 5% | 15% | 80% |
| Market | 4% | 10% | 86% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1456 vs 1622).
- H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Macva Sabac | Crvena Zvezda | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 2.3 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.9 | 2.7 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Macva Sabac 0–0–6 Crvena Zvezda
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/26 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 5-0 HT 3-0 | FK Macva Sabac |
| 29/09/22 Serbia Cup | FK Macva Sabac | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 11/03/21 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 4-0 HT 2-0 | FK Macva Sabac |
| 09/08/20 Serbia Super Liga | FK Macva Sabac | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 07/03/20 Serbia Super Liga | FK Macva Sabac | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 20/11/19 Serbia Cup | Crvena Zvezda | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Macva Sabac |
Standings · Serbia Super Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena Zvezda | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 37 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Belgrade | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | FK Radnicki 1923 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 20 |
| 6 | FK Cukaricki | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 18 |
| 8 | FK Radnik Surdulica | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| 9 | FK Novi Pazar | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 10 | Partizan Belgrade | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 23 | 11 |
| 12 | FK Macva Sabac | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki Nis | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 8 |
| 14 | FK Zemun | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 6 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Macva Sabac | Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| FK Zemun | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| OFK Beograd | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| FK Cukaricki | 2-2 D | 4-0 W |
| Mladost Lucani | 1-2 L | 5-1 W |
| FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Radnicki Nis | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| IMT Novi Belgrade | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 4 L | 8 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Macva Sabac
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 17/10 | OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 11/09 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 29/08 | FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Crvena Zvezda
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/09 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/09 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Macva Sabac vs Crvena Zvezda?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Crvena Zvezda win (83%). Probabilities: FK Macva Sabac 5%, draw 12%, Crvena Zvezda 83%.
How many goals are expected in FK Macva Sabac vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model expects 3.04 goals (FK Macva Sabac 0.52 · Crvena Zvezda 2.52), with a 60% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Macva Sabac vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.