Football · Serbia Super Liga · 02/11, 18:00

Prediction: Mladost Lucani vs FK Radnik Surdulica

Team pages: Mladost Lucani · FK Radnik Surdulica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Mladost Lucani1.19

FK Radnik Surdulica1.21

1X2

35% 30% 36%

Mladost Lucani Draw FK Radnik Surdulica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mladost Lucani 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWDLD

FK Radnik Surdulica 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDLWL

Head-to-head

Mladost Lucani 2–4–0 FK Radnik Surdulica (6 last)

FK Radnik Surdulica1-1Mladost Lucani
FK Radnik Surdulica0-0Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani1-0FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnik Surdulica1-1Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani0-0FK Radnik Surdulica
Mladost Lucani2-0FK Radnik Surdulica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mladost Lucani 1511 · FK Radnik Surdulica 1511

	Mladost Lucani	Draw	FK Radnik Surdulica
Our model	34%	30%	35%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mladost Lucani: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mladost Lucani	FK Radnik Surdulica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:26 +3’	2.70	3.20	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mladost Lucani 2–4–0 FK Radnik Surdulica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	1-1 HT 0-0	Mladost Lucani
08/12/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	0-0 HT 0-0	Mladost Lucani
02/08/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Radnik Surdulica
25/11/23 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	1-1 HT 0-1	Mladost Lucani
31/07/23 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Radnik Surdulica
09/05/23 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Radnik Surdulica

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	13	12	1	0	33	4	37
2	Vojvodina	13	9	2	2	28	12	29
3	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	13	8	2	3	21	11	26
4	IMT Novi Belgrade	13	6	3	4	15	9	21
5	FK Radnicki 1923	13	6	2	5	19	16	20
6	FK Cukaricki	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
7	Mladost Lucani	13	4	6	3	12	18	18
8	FK Radnik Surdulica	13	4	5	4	17	17	17
9	FK Novi Pazar	13	4	4	5	13	14	16
10	Partizan Belgrade	13	4	2	7	21	24	14
11	OFK Beograd	13	2	5	6	14	23	11
12	FK Macva Sabac	13	2	4	7	9	21	10
13	Radnicki Nis	13	2	2	9	9	23	8
14	FK Zemun	13	1	3	9	7	25	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mladost Lucani	FK Radnik Surdulica
Crvena Zvezda	1-5 L	0-0 D
FK Macva Sabac	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Radnicki 1923	0-5 L	0-1 L
Radnicki Nis	1-0 W	3-0 W
IMT Novi Belgrade	0-2 L	0-1 L
Partizan Belgrade	3-1 W	4-4 D
FK Zemun	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Cukaricki	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Radnik Surdulica (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mladost Lucani

DWWLWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
18/10	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-5	1	2	L
12/10	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
20/09	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	1	6	W
12/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-3	0-5	6	6	L
05/09	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
30/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
23/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-0	3-1	0	3	W
16/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
09/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	10	7	D

FK Radnik Surdulica

WWLWDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/10	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-0	3-0	7	7	W
10/10	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
19/09	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	3-1	4-4	3	8	D
14/09	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
10/09	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	3-0	3-1	6	6	W
29/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-5	1	6	L
23/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
15/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mladost Lucani vs FK Radnik Surdulica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Radnik Surdulica win (36%). Probabilities: Mladost Lucani 35%, draw 30%, FK Radnik Surdulica 36%.

How many goals are expected in Mladost Lucani vs FK Radnik Surdulica?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Mladost Lucani 1.19 · FK Radnik Surdulica 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mladost Lucani vs FK Radnik Surdulica?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.