Football · Serbia Super Liga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd

Team pages: Mladost Lucani · OFK Beograd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Mladost Lucani1.26

OFK Beograd1.24

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Mladost Lucani Draw OFK Beograd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mladost Lucani 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWLWLW

OFK Beograd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWLDLL

Head-to-head

Mladost Lucani 1–3–2 OFK Beograd (6 last)

Mladost Lucani0-0OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd1-1Mladost Lucani
OFK Beograd1-0Mladost Lucani
OFK Beograd0-0Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani1-2OFK Beograd
Mladost Lucani3-1OFK Beograd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mladost Lucani 1520 · OFK Beograd 1449

	Mladost Lucani	Draw	OFK Beograd
Our model	36%	30%	35%
Market	36%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mladost Lucani (rating 1520 vs 1449).
H2H favours OFK Beograd: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mladost Lucani	OFK Beograd
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:55 +3’	2.55	3.25	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mladost Lucani 1–3–2 OFK Beograd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	0-0 HT 0-0	OFK Beograd
23/08/25 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	1-1 HT 1-1	Mladost Lucani
11/05/25 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	1-0 HT 0-0	Mladost Lucani
24/11/24 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	0-0 HT 0-0	Mladost Lucani
20/07/24 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-2 HT 0-0	OFK Beograd
15/05/16 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	3-1 HT 1-1	OFK Beograd

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	10	9	1	0	24	3	28
2	Vojvodina	10	7	1	2	21	10	22
3	FK Radnicki 1923	9	5	2	2	17	9	17
4	Mladost Lucani	10	4	4	2	10	12	16
5	IMT Novi Belgrade	10	4	3	3	12	7	15
6	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	9	4	2	3	14	10	14
7	FK Radnik Surdulica	10	3	5	2	14	15	14
8	FK Novi Pazar	10	3	4	3	10	11	13
9	FK Cukaricki	10	3	2	5	12	18	11
10	OFK Beograd	10	2	3	5	13	21	9
11	Partizan Belgrade	9	2	2	5	17	19	8
12	FK Macva Sabac	10	2	2	6	6	17	8
13	Radnicki Nis	9	2	2	5	6	11	8
14	FK Zemun	10	0	3	7	6	19	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mladost Lucani	OFK Beograd
FK Radnicki 1923	0-5 L	3-5 L
Radnicki Nis	1-0 W	1-3 L
IMT Novi Belgrade	0-2 L	1-1 D
Partizan Belgrade	3-1 W	1-3 L
FK Zemun	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Cukaricki	2-2 D	0-2 L
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-0 D	2-2 D
FK Novi Pazar	0-0 D	4-1 W
FK Radnik Surdulica	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mladost Lucani

DDDDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	1	6	W
12/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-3	0-5	6	6	L
05/09	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
30/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
23/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-0	3-1	0	3	W
16/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
09/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	10	7	D
03/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
26/07	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
19/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

OFK Beograd

LDWDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	2-2	3-5	3	5	L
13/09	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/09	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
31/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	1	4	L
22/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
15/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
09/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
01/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	2-1	4-1	3	6	W
25/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
19/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-4	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mladost Lucani win (36%). Probabilities: Mladost Lucani 36%, draw 29%, OFK Beograd 35%.

How many goals are expected in Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Mladost Lucani 1.26 · OFK Beograd 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.