Football · Serbia Super Liga · 18/10, 16:00
Prediction: Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani
Team pages: Crvena Zvezda · Mladost Lucani
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Crvena Zvezda2.53
Mladost Lucani0.53
1X2
Crvena Zvezda
Draw
Mladost Lucani
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Crvena Zvezda
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Mladost Lucani
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crvena Zvezda
5–1–0
Mladost Lucani
(6 last)
- Crvena Zvezda4-0Mladost Lucani
- Mladost Lucani1-4Crvena Zvezda
- Crvena Zvezda3-1Mladost Lucani
- Mladost Lucani0-2Crvena Zvezda
- Crvena Zvezda2-2Mladost Lucani
- Crvena Zvezda1-0Mladost Lucani
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crvena Zvezda 1620 · Mladost Lucani 1509
| Crvena Zvezda | Draw | Mladost Lucani | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1620 vs 1509).
- H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crvena Zvezda | Mladost Lucani | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.3 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.2 | 1.3 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crvena Zvezda 5–1–0 Mladost Lucani
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Mladost Lucani |
| 15/08/25 Serbia Super Liga | Mladost Lucani | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 24/05/25 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Mladost Lucani |
| 30/11/24 Serbia Super Liga | Mladost Lucani | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 27/07/24 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Mladost Lucani |
| 28/06/24 Europe Friendlies | Crvena Zvezda | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mladost Lucani |
Standings · Serbia Super Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena Zvezda | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Belgrade | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | FK Radnicki 1923 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | FK Radnik Surdulica | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| 8 | FK Novi Pazar | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| 9 | FK Cukaricki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 12 |
| 10 | Partizan Belgrade | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 12 | FK Macva Sabac | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 9 |
| 13 | Radnicki Nis | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 8 |
| 14 | FK Zemun | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 3 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crvena Zvezda | Mladost Lucani |
|---|---|---|
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 3-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Radnicki Nis | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| IMT Novi Belgrade | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Partizan Belgrade | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| FK Zemun | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FK Cukaricki | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| FK Novi Pazar | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 8 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crvena Zvezda
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/09 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/09 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Mladost Lucani
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 03/08 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 19/07 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crvena Zvezda win (83%). Probabilities: Crvena Zvezda 83%, draw 12%, Mladost Lucani 5%.
How many goals are expected in Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Crvena Zvezda 2.53 · Mladost Lucani 0.53), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.