Football · Serbia Super Liga · 17/10, 19:00

Prediction: FK Macva Sabac vs OFK Beograd

Team pages: FK Macva Sabac · OFK Beograd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

FK Macva Sabac1.06

OFK Beograd1.45

1X2

26% 29% 45%

FK Macva Sabac Draw OFK Beograd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Macva Sabac 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDDLLD

OFK Beograd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWLDLL

Head-to-head

FK Macva Sabac 3–1–1 OFK Beograd (5 last)

FK Macva Sabac2-0OFK Beograd
FK Macva Sabac1-1OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd2-1FK Macva Sabac
FK Macva Sabac3-0OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd0-1FK Macva Sabac

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Macva Sabac 1462 · OFK Beograd 1449

	FK Macva Sabac	Draw	OFK Beograd
Our model	26%	29%	45%
Market	26%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Macva Sabac: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Macva Sabac	OFK Beograd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.8	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.25

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +13’	3.50	3.25	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Macva Sabac 3–1–1 OFK Beograd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/24 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Macva Sabac	2-0 HT 0-0	OFK Beograd
13/04/24 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Macva Sabac	1-1 HT 0-1	OFK Beograd
05/11/23 Serbia Prva Liga	OFK Beograd	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Macva Sabac
03/05/17 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Macva Sabac	3-0 HT 2-0	OFK Beograd
15/10/16 Serbia Prva Liga	OFK Beograd	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Macva Sabac

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	11	10	1	0	27	3	31
2	Vojvodina	11	8	1	2	25	11	25
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	11	5	3	3	13	7	18
4	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	10	5	2	3	17	10	17
5	FK Radnicki 1923	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
6	Mladost Lucani	10	4	4	2	10	12	16
7	FK Radnik Surdulica	11	3	5	3	14	16	14
8	FK Novi Pazar	11	3	4	4	10	12	13
9	FK Cukaricki	11	3	3	5	14	20	12
10	Partizan Belgrade	10	3	2	5	18	19	11
11	OFK Beograd	10	2	3	5	13	21	9
12	FK Macva Sabac	11	2	3	6	8	19	9
13	Radnicki Nis	10	2	2	6	7	15	8
14	FK Zemun	11	0	3	8	6	22	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Macva Sabac	OFK Beograd
FK Cukaricki	2-2 D	0-2 L
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-2 L	2-2 D
FK Radnicki 1923	0-0 D	3-5 L
FK Novi Pazar	1-1 D	4-1 W
Radnicki Nis	1-0 W	1-3 L
FK Radnik Surdulica	1-2 L	0-0 D
IMT Novi Belgrade	1-0 W	1-1 D
Vojvodina	0-2 L	0-4 L
Partizan Belgrade	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Macva Sabac (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Macva Sabac

LLWLWDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-2	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
11/09	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	0	5	L
05/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
15/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	0	2	L
09/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	4	9	L
26/07	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	4	12	L

OFK Beograd

LDWDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	2-2	3-5	3	5	L
13/09	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/09	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
31/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	1	4	L
22/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
15/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
09/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
01/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	2-1	4-1	3	6	W
25/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
19/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-4	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Macva Sabac vs OFK Beograd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an OFK Beograd win (45%). Probabilities: FK Macva Sabac 26%, draw 29%, OFK Beograd 45%.

How many goals are expected in FK Macva Sabac vs OFK Beograd?

The model expects 2.51 goals (FK Macva Sabac 1.06 · OFK Beograd 1.45), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Macva Sabac vs OFK Beograd?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.