Football · Serbia Super Liga · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: FK Cukaricki vs FK Zemun

Team pages: FK Cukaricki · FK Zemun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FK Cukaricki2.06

FK Zemun0.84

1X2

65% 21% 14%

FK Cukaricki Draw FK Zemun

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Cukaricki 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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FK Zemun 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Cukaricki 2–1–1 FK Zemun (4 last)

FK Zemun0-3FK Cukaricki
FK Cukaricki1-1FK Zemun
FK Cukaricki4-1FK Zemun
FK Zemun2-0FK Cukaricki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Cukaricki 1476 · FK Zemun 1403

	FK Cukaricki	Draw	FK Zemun
Our model	65%	22%	13%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Cukaricki (rating 1476 vs 1403).
H2H favours FK Cukaricki: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Cukaricki	FK Zemun
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	0.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.60

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +5’	1.40	4.60	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Cukaricki 2–1–1 FK Zemun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/11/18 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zemun	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Cukaricki
21/07/18 Serbia Super Liga	FK Cukaricki	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Zemun
04/12/17 Serbia Super Liga	FK Cukaricki	4-1 HT 1-1	FK Zemun
13/08/17 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zemun	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Cukaricki

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	11	10	1	0	27	3	31
2	Vojvodina	11	8	1	2	25	11	25
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	11	5	3	3	13	7	18
4	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	10	5	2	3	17	10	17
5	FK Radnicki 1923	10	5	2	3	17	12	17
6	Mladost Lucani	10	4	4	2	10	12	16
7	FK Radnik Surdulica	11	3	5	3	14	16	14
8	FK Novi Pazar	11	3	4	4	10	12	13
9	FK Cukaricki	11	3	3	5	14	20	12
10	Partizan Belgrade	10	3	2	5	18	19	11
11	OFK Beograd	10	2	3	5	13	21	9
12	FK Macva Sabac	11	2	3	6	8	19	9
13	Radnicki Nis	10	2	2	6	7	15	8
14	FK Zemun	11	0	3	8	6	22	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Cukaricki	FK Zemun
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1-2 L	0-3 L
FK Novi Pazar	1-1 D	2-2 D
FK Radnik Surdulica	1-3 L	1-1 D
Vojvodina	0-5 L	1-2 L
Crvena Zvezda	0-4 L	0-2 L
OFK Beograd	2-0 W	0-1 L
Mladost Lucani	2-2 D	0-1 L
FK Radnicki 1923	3-0 W	0-3 L
Radnicki Nis	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: FK Cukaricki (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Cukaricki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
20/09	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-2	0	7	L
12/09	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
05/09	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-3	1-3	6	6	L
29/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-5	12	4	L
23/08	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
15/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
09/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
01/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	3-0	3-0	1	5	W
25/07	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W

FK Zemun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
19/09	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
14/09	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
06/09	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
22/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
08/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-3	5	8	L
02/08	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
25/07	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-4	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Cukaricki vs FK Zemun?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Cukaricki win (65%). Probabilities: FK Cukaricki 65%, draw 21%, FK Zemun 14%.

How many goals are expected in FK Cukaricki vs FK Zemun?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FK Cukaricki 2.06 · FK Zemun 0.84), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Cukaricki vs FK Zemun?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.