Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II

Team pages: Tallinna JK Legion · JK Trans Narva II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.08Total

Tallinna JK Legion1.04

JK Trans Narva II3.04

1X2

9% 13% 78%

Tallinna JK Legion Draw JK Trans Narva II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Tallinna JK Legion 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLLDL

JK Trans Narva II 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Tallinna JK Legion 0–6 JK Trans Narva II (6 last)

Tallinna JK Legion1-3JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II5-0Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion0-4JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II5-1Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion0-4JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II2-0Tallinna JK Legion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tallinna JK Legion 1377 · JK Trans Narva II 1608

	Tallinna JK Legion	Draw	JK Trans Narva II
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	9%	11%	80%

Estimated total (ours) 4.08 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Trans Narva II (rating 1377 vs 1608).
H2H favours JK Trans Narva II: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tallinna JK Legion	JK Trans Narva II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 3.1	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.7	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

110.00

X8.00

21.13

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.93

2 (-2.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.90

Under 4.51.90

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +15’	10.00	8.00	1.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tallinna JK Legion 0–0–6 JK Trans Narva II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	1-3 HT 0-1	JK Trans Narva II
02/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	5-0 HT 1-0	Tallinna JK Legion
28/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	0-4 HT 0-1	JK Trans Narva II
16/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	5-1 HT 3-0	Tallinna JK Legion
29/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	0-4 HT 0-2	JK Trans Narva II
26/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	2-0 HT 1-0	Tallinna JK Legion

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	29	19	3	7	69	35	60
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	30	18	2	10	75	52	56
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71	68	54
4	JK Tammeka Tartu II	30	15	4	11	74	60	49
5	FA Tartu Kalev	29	15	2	12	71	52	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	30	14	4	12	95	62	46
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	29	13	5	11	74	60	44
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	30	10	3	17	44	81	33
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	30	7	5	18	60	77	26
10	Tallinna JK Legion	29	3	3	23	25	111	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tallinna JK Legion	JK Trans Narva II
Tabasalu FC Charma	1-1 D	4-0 W
FA Tartu Kalev	1-2 L	1-0 W
JK Viljandi Tulevik	0-3 L	3-3 D
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	0-1 L	1-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	3-3 D	2-1 W
Johvi FC Phoenix	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva II (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tallinna JK Legion

WLLDLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-5	0-12	1	3	L
14/09	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
10/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
05/09	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
30/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-5	7	6	L
24/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
21/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	9	3	D
09/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
01/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	9	6	W

JK Trans Narva II

WWWLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
15/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
11/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
06/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
29/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
23/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-3	6	2	D
19/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
15/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
01/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	5-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Trans Narva II win (78%). Probabilities: Tallinna JK Legion 9%, draw 13%, JK Trans Narva II 78%.

How many goals are expected in Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model expects 4.08 goals (Tallinna JK Legion 1.04 · JK Trans Narva II 3.04), with a 55% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.