Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: JK Viljandi Tulevik vs FA Tartu Kalev

Team pages: JK Viljandi Tulevik · FA Tartu Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.47Total

JK Viljandi Tulevik2.54

FA Tartu Kalev1.93

1X2

51% 20% 29%

JK Viljandi Tulevik Draw FA Tartu Kalev

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Viljandi Tulevik 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDDLWLW

FA Tartu Kalev 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLLWW

Head-to-head

JK Viljandi Tulevik 2–4 FA Tartu Kalev (6 last)

FA Tartu Kalev4-2JK Viljandi Tulevik
FA Tartu Kalev3-4JK Viljandi Tulevik
JK Viljandi Tulevik1-3FA Tartu Kalev
JK Viljandi Tulevik2-1FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev1-0JK Viljandi Tulevik
FA Tartu Kalev3-0JK Viljandi Tulevik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Viljandi Tulevik 1483 · FA Tartu Kalev 1536

	JK Viljandi Tulevik	Draw	FA Tartu Kalev
Our model	51%	20%	29%
Market	51%	20%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 4.47 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FA Tartu Kalev (rating 1483 vs 1536).
H2H favours FA Tartu Kalev: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Viljandi Tulevik	FA Tartu Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	2.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	2.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.77 ★
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	2.50 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +5’	2.10	4.20	2.50
01:06 +9’	1.95▼	4.20	2.75▲
06:49 +3’	1.80▼	4.50▲	3.00▲
08:18 +2’	1.75▼	4.50	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:54 +27’	2.04	4.06	2.58
14:40 +35’	2.01▼	4.07▲	2.61▲
16:50 +55’	2.05▲	4.05▼	2.56▼
22:37 +19’	2.05	4.06▲	2.56
01:11 +4’	1.77▼	4.31▲	3.04▲
06:39 +13’	1.75▼	4.44▲	3.03▼
09:14 +29’	1.77▲	4.41▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Viljandi Tulevik 2–0–4 FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	4-2 HT 2-1	JK Viljandi Tulevik
13/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	3-4 HT 1-2	JK Viljandi Tulevik
03/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Viljandi Tulevik	1-3 HT 0-1	FA Tartu Kalev
06/10/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Viljandi Tulevik	2-1 HT 2-0	FA Tartu Kalev
31/08/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Viljandi Tulevik
26/06/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	3-0 HT 1-0	JK Viljandi Tulevik

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	29	19	3	7	69	35	60
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	30	18	2	10	75	52	56
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71	68	54
4	JK Tammeka Tartu II	30	15	4	11	74	60	49
5	FA Tartu Kalev	29	15	2	12	71	52	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	30	14	4	12	95	62	46
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	29	13	5	11	74	60	44
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	30	10	3	17	44	81	33
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	30	7	5	18	60	77	26
10	Tallinna JK Legion	29	3	3	23	25	111	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Viljandi Tulevik	FA Tartu Kalev
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	5-3 W	5-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-3 L	2-1 W
Tallinna JK Legion	3-0 W	2-1 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	1-2 L	1-1 D
JK Trans Narva II	3-3 D	0-1 L
Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-2 D	4-0 W
Johvi FC Phoenix	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FA Tartu Kalev (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Viljandi Tulevik

DDLLDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	4-1	5-3	0	5	W
10/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-3	4	10	L
05/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
30/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
23/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-3	9	2	D
20/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-4	2	5	L
01/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
25/07	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

FA Tartu Kalev

LWWWWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
10/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
25/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-2	11	5	W
19/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
12/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-1	10-2	–	–	W
21/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Viljandi Tulevik vs FA Tartu Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Viljandi Tulevik win (51%). Probabilities: JK Viljandi Tulevik 51%, draw 20%, FA Tartu Kalev 29%.

How many goals are expected in JK Viljandi Tulevik vs FA Tartu Kalev?

The model expects 4.47 goals (JK Viljandi Tulevik 2.54 · FA Tartu Kalev 1.93), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Viljandi Tulevik vs FA Tartu Kalev?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.