Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 03/10, 11:30

Prediction: JK Viljandi Tulevik vs JK Tallinna Kalev II

Team pages: JK Viljandi Tulevik · JK Tallinna Kalev II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.61Total

JK Viljandi Tulevik2.66

JK Tallinna Kalev II1.95

1X2

53% 19% 28%

JK Viljandi Tulevik Draw JK Tallinna Kalev II

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Viljandi Tulevik 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWLWW

JK Tallinna Kalev II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWLWLL

Head-to-head

JK Viljandi Tulevik 2–1–3 JK Tallinna Kalev II (6 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev II2-1JK Viljandi Tulevik
JK Viljandi Tulevik4-3JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Tallinna Kalev II1-2JK Viljandi Tulevik
JK Tallinna Kalev II7-2JK Viljandi Tulevik
JK Viljandi Tulevik1-1JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Tallinna Kalev II3-0JK Viljandi Tulevik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Viljandi Tulevik 1519 · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1464

	JK Viljandi Tulevik	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev II
Our model	53%	19%	28%
Market	53%	18%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.61 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Viljandi Tulevik (rating 1519 vs 1464).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Viljandi Tulevik	JK Tallinna Kalev II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.2	1.8 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 1.1	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	1.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X5.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	2.90 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:07 +16’	1.80	4.75	2.90
11:23 +4’	1.70▼	5.00▲	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Viljandi Tulevik 2–1–3 JK Tallinna Kalev II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-1 HT 2-0	JK Viljandi Tulevik
10/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Viljandi Tulevik	4-3 HT 3-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II
21/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	1-2 HT 0-0	JK Viljandi Tulevik
23/10/23 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	7-2 HT 3-2	JK Viljandi Tulevik
02/09/23 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Viljandi Tulevik	1-1 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II
25/05/23 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Viljandi Tulevik

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	30	20	3	7	71	36	63
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	30	18	2	10	75	52	56
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71	68	54
4	JK Tammeka Tartu II	30	15	4	11	74	60	49
5	JK Viljandi Tulevik	30	14	5	11	80	61	47
6	FA Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72	58	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus II	30	14	4	12	95	62	46
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	30	10	3	17	44	81	33
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	30	7	5	18	60	77	26
10	Tallinna JK Legion	30	3	3	24	26	113	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Viljandi Tulevik	JK Tallinna Kalev II
FA Tartu Kalev	6-1 W	1-1 D
Tallinna JK Legion	3-0 W	3-3 D
JK Trans Narva II	3-3 D	1-2 L
Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-2 D	0-7 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Viljandi Tulevik (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Viljandi Tulevik

DLLDDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	5-0	6-1	6	4	W
15/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	4-1	5-3	0	5	W
10/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-3	4	10	L
05/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
30/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
23/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-3	9	2	D
20/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-4	2	5	L
01/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	5	8	D

JK Tallinna Kalev II

LWDDDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
14/09	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	13	L
11/09	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
06/09	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-7	3	0	L
30/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	8	1	W
25/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
21/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	8	3	D
16/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
09/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	6	8	W
01/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Viljandi Tulevik vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Viljandi Tulevik win (53%). Probabilities: JK Viljandi Tulevik 53%, draw 19%, JK Tallinna Kalev II 28%.

How many goals are expected in JK Viljandi Tulevik vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

The model expects 4.61 goals (JK Viljandi Tulevik 2.66 · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1.95), with a 51% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Viljandi Tulevik vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.