Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 07/08, 20:00

Prediction: FC Dordrecht vs Ajax Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

FC Dordrecht1.94

Ajax Reserves1.04

1X2

58% 23% 19%

FC Dordrecht Draw Ajax Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dordrecht 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Ajax Reserves 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

FC Dordrecht 3–2–1 Ajax Reserves (6 last)

FC Dordrecht0-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves0-0FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht3-0Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves0-1FC Dordrecht
Ajax Reserves2-2FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht4-0Ajax Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dordrecht 1467 · Ajax Reserves 1455

	FC Dordrecht	Draw	Ajax Reserves
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Dordrecht: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dordrecht	Ajax Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.95
2	4.60 → 4.60	Pinn 5.57 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +1’	1.57	4.20	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:02	1.45	4.95	5.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dordrecht 3–2–1 Ajax Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	0-1 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
07/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dordrecht
04/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	3-0 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves
30/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Dordrecht
29/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-2 HT 2-1	FC Dordrecht
20/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	4-0 HT 3-0	Ajax Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maastricht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NAC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RKC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roda JC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Top Oss	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VVV	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dordrecht	Ajax Reserves
Almere City FC	1-4 L	0-2 L
ADO Den Haag	1-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Dordrecht

LDWLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Anderlecht II Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
18/07	Lusail World Club Friendlies	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
14/07	Borussia Dortmund II Europe Friendlies	1-1	4-1	5	1	W
04/07	Feyenoord Europe Friendlies	0-4	0-6	1	1	L
27/06	Schalke II Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
24/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/04	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
12/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
06/04	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
03/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	9	3	L

Ajax Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	AZ Reserves Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
24/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
13/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
06/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-6	2	2	L
03/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	2-4	5	6	L
20/03	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
17/03	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
13/03	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-2	5	4	W
06/03	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dordrecht vs Ajax Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dordrecht win (58%). Probabilities: FC Dordrecht 58%, draw 23%, Ajax Reserves 19%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dordrecht vs Ajax Reserves?

The model expects 2.99 goals (FC Dordrecht 1.94 · Ajax Reserves 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dordrecht vs Ajax Reserves?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.