Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 17/08, 20:00
Prediction: De Graafschap vs AZ Reserves
Team pages: De Graafschap · AZ Reserves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.04Total
De Graafschap2.38
AZ Reserves1.66
1X2
De Graafschap
Draw
AZ Reserves
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
De Graafschap
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
AZ Reserves
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
De Graafschap
4–1–1
AZ Reserves
(6 last)
- De Graafschap5-0AZ Reserves
- AZ Reserves1-3De Graafschap
- De Graafschap5-1AZ Reserves
- AZ Reserves2-2De Graafschap
- De Graafschap2-1AZ Reserves
- AZ Reserves3-0De Graafschap
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · De Graafschap 1483 · AZ Reserves 1509
| De Graafschap | Draw | AZ Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours De Graafschap: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| De Graafschap | AZ Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.5 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.8 | 3.4 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · De Graafschap 4–1–1 AZ Reserves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | De Graafschap | 5-0 HT 1-0 | AZ Reserves |
| 22/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | AZ Reserves | 1-3 HT 0-1 | De Graafschap |
| 21/02/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | De Graafschap | 5-1 HT 3-0 | AZ Reserves |
| 23/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | AZ Reserves | 2-2 HT 0-1 | De Graafschap |
| 29/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | De Graafschap | 2-1 HT 1-0 | AZ Reserves |
| 23/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | AZ Reserves | 3-0 HT 0-0 | De Graafschap |
Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | PSV Reserves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | FC Dordrecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Maastricht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | NAC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Emmen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Almere City FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | De Graafschap | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | FC Den Bosch | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Helmond Sport | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | RKC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | VVV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Ajax Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Utrecht Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Top Oss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | AZ Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Roda JC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | De Graafschap | AZ Reserves |
|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 3-1 W | 4-3 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
De Graafschap
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Excelsior Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Kifisias FC Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | AEK Athens Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 03/07 | Heerenveen Europe Friendlies |
1-4 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | FC Utrecht Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
AZ Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Quick Boys Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Ajax Reserves Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 24/04 | Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/04 | De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in De Graafschap vs AZ Reserves?
According to our model, the most likely result is a De Graafschap win (52%). Probabilities: De Graafschap 52%, draw 22%, AZ Reserves 25%.
How many goals are expected in De Graafschap vs AZ Reserves?
The model expects 4.04 goals (De Graafschap 2.38 · AZ Reserves 1.66), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs AZ Reserves?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.