Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 17/08, 20:00
Prediction: Ajax Reserves vs FC Emmen
Team pages: Ajax Reserves · FC Emmen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Ajax Reserves1.31
FC Emmen1.56
1X2
Ajax Reserves
Draw
FC Emmen
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ajax Reserves
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
FC Emmen
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ajax Reserves
0–2–4
FC Emmen
(6 last)
- FC Emmen0-0Ajax Reserves
- Ajax Reserves0-1FC Emmen
- Ajax Reserves0-2FC Emmen
- FC Emmen4-2Ajax Reserves
- FC Emmen4-2Ajax Reserves
- Ajax Reserves3-3FC Emmen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ajax Reserves 1435 · FC Emmen 1508
| Ajax Reserves | Draw | FC Emmen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Emmen (rating 1435 vs 1508).
- H2H favours FC Emmen: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ajax Reserves | FC Emmen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.3 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.3 | 1.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax Reserves 0–2–4 FC Emmen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | FC Emmen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ajax Reserves |
| 24/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | Ajax Reserves | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Emmen |
| 11/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | Ajax Reserves | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Emmen |
| 08/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | FC Emmen | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Ajax Reserves |
| 29/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | FC Emmen | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Ajax Reserves |
| 15/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | Ajax Reserves | 3-3 HT 2-0 | FC Emmen |
Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | PSV Reserves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | FC Dordrecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Maastricht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | NAC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Emmen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Almere City FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | De Graafschap | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | FC Den Bosch | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Helmond Sport | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | RKC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | VVV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Ajax Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Utrecht Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Top Oss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | AZ Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Roda JC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ajax Reserves | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 1-6 L | 3-3 D |
| Almere City FC | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Emmen (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ajax Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 17/07 | AZ Reserves Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 24/04 | FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/04 | PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 13/04 | Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/03 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 17/03 | VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 13/03 | FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
3-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
FC Emmen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Almere City FC Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 24/07 | FC Twente Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | FC Groningen Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/04 | Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 10/04 | RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/04 | Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ajax Reserves vs FC Emmen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Emmen win (43%). Probabilities: Ajax Reserves 32%, draw 26%, FC Emmen 43%.
How many goals are expected in Ajax Reserves vs FC Emmen?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Ajax Reserves 1.31 · FC Emmen 1.56), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ajax Reserves vs FC Emmen?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.