Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 07/08, 20:00

Prediction: FC Emmen vs Roda JC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

FC Emmen1.67

Roda JC1.62

1X2

39% 25% 36%

FC Emmen Draw Roda JC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Emmen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDWLLW

Roda JC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLDDWDDL

Head-to-head

FC Emmen 0–2–4 Roda JC (6 last)

Roda JC2-2FC Emmen
FC Emmen1-1Roda JC
Roda JC1-0FC Emmen
FC Emmen1-3Roda JC
Roda JC3-2FC Emmen
FC Emmen0-1Roda JC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Emmen 1470 · Roda JC 1505

	FC Emmen	Draw	Roda JC
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Roda JC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Emmen	Roda JC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.90
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.73 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +2’	2.35	3.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:02	2.28	3.90	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Emmen 0–2–4 Roda JC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	2-2 HT 2-0	FC Emmen
22/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	1-1 HT 1-0	Roda JC
11/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Emmen
13/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	1-3 HT 0-1	Roda JC
16/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Emmen
15/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	0-1 HT 0-1	Roda JC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maastricht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NAC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RKC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roda JC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Top Oss	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VVV	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Emmen	Roda JC
RKC	0-5 L	1-1 D
Vitesse	3-3 D	1-1 D
FC Eindhoven	0-1 L	3-1 W
Cambuur Leeuwarden	2-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Roda JC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Emmen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Almere City FC Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-0	11	1	W
24/07	FC Twente Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
11/07	FC Groningen Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
24/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	2-2	5	6	D
10/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	7	5	L
06/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
03/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	3-3	2	6	D
28/03	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
24/03	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-4	5	4	L

Roda JC

LWDLDDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Alemannia Aachen Europe Friendlies	1-3	2-4	2	0	L
10/07	Cambuur Leeuwarden Europe Friendlies	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/07	Vitesse Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
30/06	VV Chevremont Club Friendly List	5-0	10-0	–	–	W
01/05	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/04	RKC Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
24/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
17/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
10/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
06/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Emmen vs Roda JC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Emmen win (39%). Probabilities: FC Emmen 39%, draw 25%, Roda JC 36%.

How many goals are expected in FC Emmen vs Roda JC?

The model expects 3.29 goals (FC Emmen 1.67 · Roda JC 1.62), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Emmen vs Roda JC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.