Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 07/08, 20:00

Prediction: Vitesse vs RKC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Vitesse1.48

RKC1.42

1X2

38% 26% 35%

Vitesse Draw RKC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vitesse 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDDWD

RKC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWDDDL

Head-to-head

Vitesse 1–1–4 RKC (6 last)

Vitesse2-1RKC
RKC1-1Vitesse
RKC3-1Vitesse
RKC3-1Vitesse
Vitesse0-2RKC
RKC1-0Vitesse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitesse 1555 · RKC 1476

	Vitesse	Draw	RKC
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vitesse (rating 1555 vs 1476).
H2H favours RKC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitesse	RKC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.67
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.76 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +29’	2.35	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:02	2.33	3.67	2.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitesse 1–1–4 RKC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	2-1 HT 1-0	RKC
16/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	RKC	1-1 HT 1-0	Vitesse
30/10/24 Netherlands Cup	RKC	3-1 HT 3-0	Vitesse
09/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	RKC	3-1 HT 1-0	Vitesse
16/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Vitesse	0-2 HT 0-1	RKC
01/04/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	RKC	1-0 HT 1-0	Vitesse

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maastricht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NAC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RKC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roda JC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Top Oss	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VVV	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitesse	RKC
Roda JC	1-1 D	1-1 D
PSV Reserves	2-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: RKC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vitesse

LWWDWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	AEK Athens Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/07	Borussia Dortmund II Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
03/07	Roda JC Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	1	0	D
17/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
13/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
06/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	6-1	5	2	W
03/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-3	9	6	D
20/03	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
16/03	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/03	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	8	3	L

RKC

WDDLDWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-2	6	0	L
18/07	FC Volendam Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	2	0	D
18/07	Alemannia Aachen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
11/07	Kozakken Boys Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
30/06	Rot-Weiss Oberhausen Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	8	0	W
09/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
05/05	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
01/05	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
28/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
24/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-1	0	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitesse vs RKC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitesse win (38%). Probabilities: Vitesse 38%, draw 26%, RKC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs RKC?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Vitesse 1.48 · RKC 1.42), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitesse vs RKC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.