Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 09/08, 16:45

Prediction: Maastricht vs FC Utrecht Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Maastricht1.35

FC Utrecht Reserves1.3

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Maastricht Draw FC Utrecht Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Maastricht 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Maastricht 2–2–2 FC Utrecht Reserves (6 last)

Maastricht2-2FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves3-1Maastricht
Maastricht5-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves4-3Maastricht
Maastricht3-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-1Maastricht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maastricht 1434 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1498

	Maastricht	Draw	FC Utrecht Reserves
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Utrecht Reserves (rating 1434 vs 1498).
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maastricht	FC Utrecht Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.58

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35 +2’	2.38	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	2.45	3.74	2.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maastricht 2–2–2 FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Utrecht Reserves
17/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	3-1 HT 2-1	Maastricht
18/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	5-0 HT 3-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
04/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	4-3 HT 2-0	Maastricht
19/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
30/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-1 HT 1-1	Maastricht

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maastricht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NAC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RKC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roda JC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Top Oss	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VVV	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maastricht	FC Utrecht Reserves
Top Oss	0-2 L	1-3 L
Vitesse	0-0 D	0-3 L
Helmond Sport	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Maastricht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
28/07	Gent II Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
21/07	EVV Echt Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-2	8	2	D
14/07	Seraing United Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
07/07	Meerssen Club Friendly List	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
17/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
10/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
06/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
03/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-3	7	3	L

FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	Werder Bremen II Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	7	0	L
24/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
17/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
13/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
06/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
20/03	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
17/03	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
13/03	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/03	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maastricht vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maastricht win (38%). Probabilities: Maastricht 38%, draw 27%, FC Utrecht Reserves 35%.

How many goals are expected in Maastricht vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Maastricht 1.35 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1.3), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Maastricht vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.