Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 09/08, 12:15

Prediction: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Helmond Sport1.32

De Graafschap1.56

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Helmond Sport Draw De Graafschap

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Helmond Sport 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLDLLW

De Graafschap 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWLLWL

Head-to-head

Helmond Sport 2–1–3 De Graafschap (6 last)

Helmond Sport0-0De Graafschap
De Graafschap3-1Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport1-4De Graafschap
De Graafschap2-3Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport3-1De Graafschap
De Graafschap2-1Helmond Sport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Helmond Sport 1432 · De Graafschap 1472

	Helmond Sport	Draw	De Graafschap
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours De Graafschap (rating 1432 vs 1472).
H2H favours De Graafschap: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Helmond Sport	De Graafschap
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.9 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.68 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +6’	2.88	3.60	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:32	3.68	3.04	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Helmond Sport 2–1–3 De Graafschap

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	0-0 HT 0-0	De Graafschap
21/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	3-1 HT 1-0	Helmond Sport
09/05/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	1-4 HT 1-1	De Graafschap
13/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	2-3 HT 0-2	Helmond Sport
16/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	3-1 HT 2-1	De Graafschap
18/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	2-1 HT 1-0	Helmond Sport

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maastricht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NAC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RKC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roda JC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Top Oss	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VVV	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Helmond Sport

DDWLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sint-Truidense Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
17/07	Al Taawon Buraidah World Club Friendlies	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
12/07	Westerlo Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
07/07	VV Gemert Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
04/07	AEK Larnaca Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-2	6	0	L
01/07	Panathinaikos Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-4	3	0	L
24/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
17/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
10/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
06/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	2-2	0	7	D

De Graafschap

DWLLDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Excelsior Europe Friendlies	0-3	1-5	1	0	L
25/07	Kifisias FC Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
12/07	AEK Athens Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-2	5	9	L
03/07	Heerenveen Europe Friendlies	1-4	2-7	–	–	L
27/06	FC Utrecht Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
09/05	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
06/05	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
24/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
17/04	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
11/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-3	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?

According to our model, the most likely result is an De Graafschap win (42%). Probabilities: Helmond Sport 32%, draw 26%, De Graafschap 42%.

How many goals are expected in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Helmond Sport 1.32 · De Graafschap 1.56), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.